Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he breaks down Tuesday’s preliminary round matchup between Canada and USA at the U20 World Junior Hockey Championships.
Game odds via bet365.
All eyes will be on this high-profile showdown between two nations which have combined to win five straight gold medals in this tournament, and seven of the last eight gold medals overall dating back to 2017.
Whether matchups between Canada and the USA have come in the preliminary round or in the gold medal game, the winner has mainly ended up taking home gold in recent years. These rivals did not meet in last year’s tournament, in which the USA ultimately won gold. Canada bested the USA 6-2 during its gold medal run in 2023 and the Americans beat Canada 2-0 for gold in 2021.
The fact that head coach Dave Cameron’s Canadian side has not looked entirely convincing in its initial three matchups of the tournament adds another layer of intrigue to this matchup, as more so than in previous tournaments, this year’s Canadian group still has much to prove ahead of the medal round.
It’s clear that Cameron’s team is playing to win lower-event games based on their tactics, which is not overly surprising given the players who were omitted from the roster. The Canadians haven’t looked to break out from the defensive zone with possession very often, particularly given the strength of competition faced, instead opting to keep it safe and ‘punt’ pucks out. The defense core has also not shown mobility in joining the attack altogether.
Canada has played far less offensively talented teams than the USA thus far in the tournament, but it has allowed just two goals against, including a 4-0 shutout over a Finland team which did beat the Americans 4-3 in overtime on Sunday.
While Canada’s modest offensive play in this tournament has drawn plenty of criticism, it’s possible that facing an American team, which will press much more aggressively to try and generate offence than any of Canada’s previous opponents, could help Canada generate higher quality looks in transition and capitalize on mistakes.
Goaltender Carter George will presumably make his third start of the tournament Tuesday, and to this point he has been flawless in stopping all 49 shots faced versus Finland and Germany.
Based on his play with the USA during last year’s gold medal run and in the NCAA this season, American goaltender Trey Augustine was generally viewed as a superior option to George entering the tournament. George has been the sharper of the two goaltenders thus far in the tournament, though, and potentially provides Canada an edge in this matchup.
From an offensive perspective, Canada looked fairly disconnected once again in its matchup with Germany, which allowed a German side that will officially play in the relegation final to hang around far longer than expected.
All international hockey tournaments are quite volatile, and as I noted in my breakdown of Canada’s matchup versus Germany, the play of a team early on in this structure of tournament may not always be indicative of the final product.
These rosters are attempting to come together as a well-organized group in a short period of time, and sometimes that means a lack of cohesion early on.
With that said, what we have seen from Cameron’s group thus far has been far from convincing, and many of the problems which plagued Canada during its highly disappointing fifth-place finish in last year’s tournament have been prominent once again.
The USA will look to bounce back from its first loss in this tournament since 2023 after it allowed 44 shots on goal in a 4-3 overtime loss to Finland on Sunday. Perhaps that matchup could be a wake-up call for a team that defeated Sweden 6-2 in last year’s gold medal game.
The Americans have 10 returning players on the roster from last year’s team, and also brought back head coach David Carle. A number of key returning players such as captain Ryan Leonard, Gabe Perrault, and Zeev Buium have all taken considerable steps forward since last season, and there’s an argument to be made that this year’s team could be better than the 2024 edition. Potential 2025 No. 1 pick James Hagens has shined in the early going of the tournament, generating six points in the opening three games.
Augustine will likely still get the start in this critical matchup, though he has not been at his best in this tournament. He was shaky in allowing four goals versus Germany, and while he did stop 40 of 44 shots versus Finland, Arttu Alasiurua’s opening tally was a shot Augustine should have easily saved.
While the USA had a bit of a hiccup in its overtime loss to Finland, it has still looked to be the more convincing of these two sides thus far in this tournament. It also seems fair to give credit to the fact that a similar USA team won gold comfortably in this tournament last season, and that on paper it is also arguably the more talented team.
We certainly may not have seen Canada’s best at this point, but it’s still hard to see how it is priced as a slight favorite in this matchup. There looks to be more value backing the USA to win this matchup as slight underdogs, though, since this is a niche betting market. Even the USA is still only available at -112.
Best Bet: USA Moneyline -112
