Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Thursday’s WJC quarterfinal matchup between Czechia and Canada.
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Canada will have to win on Thursday if it wants to continue its quest for a medal at the 2025 IIHF World Junior Championship at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa. The Canadians defeated Czechia 3-2 in their final pre-tournament game and have won 21 of 24 meetings since the dissolution of Czechoslovakia.
The two teams have played in several high-stakes games in recent years. Canada defeated Czechia in the quarterfinal in 2021 (3-0), the semifinal in 2022 (5-2), and the gold medal game in 2023 (3-2 in overtime). However, it was heartbreak for Canada when it faced Czechia in the quarterfinal last year, as the latter scored with 11 seconds remaining to win 3-2.
Czechia dropped its final game of the preliminary round, losing 4-2 to Sweden on Tuesday. Sweden scored all four of its goals in the second period. However, Czechia won its first three games, defeating Switzerland (5-1), Kazakhstan (14-2), and Slovakia (4-2).
Goaltender Michael Hrabal made 37 saves in the loss to Sweden. Last year, Hrabal went 4-3 with an .877 sv% and a 3.4 GAA, but the 19-year-old looks much stronger this year. Hrabal has gone 2-1 and ranks fourth in save percentage (.926) and third in goals-against average (2.36). Including pre-tournament action, Hrabal is 4-2 with a .937 save percentage and a 1.84 goals-against average. Additionally, in his last two seasons with UMass of the NCAA, Hrabal has gone 24-18-3 with a .914 sv%, a 2.55 GAA, and three shutouts.
While goaltending is an area of strength for Czechia, it’s the team’s offensive game that leads me to believe they have a chance against Canada in the quarterfinals. Czechia led the prelims in shooting percentage, scoring on nearly 20% of its shots. The team also enters the playoffs with the fourth-best power play and the third-best penalty kill.
Czechia has three players among the top-six point producers. Vojtech Hradec and Jakub Stancl each have four goals and seven points, while captain Eduard Sale has four goals and six points. Meanwhile, Canada doesn’t have a single player among the top-30 scorers in the tournament. Even if we exclude the 14 goals Czechia scored against Kazakhstan, the team still looks stronger offensively than Canada.
Canada lost 4-1 to the United States in its final game of the preliminary round, finishing with a 2-1-1 record. Calling Canada undisciplined on New Year’s Eve would be an understatement, as they took 22 minutes in penalties, leading to three U.S. power-play goals.
Bradly Nadeau scored Canada’s lone goal on the power play early in the third period to tie the game, but the Americans quickly regained the lead and pulled away as Canada’s game unraveled. Staying out of the penalty box will be crucial for Canada to advance past Czechia on Thursday, as Canada is the only team in the tournament yet to allow a five-on-five goal.
Goaltending has been strong for Canada, as Carter George leads all netminders with a .964 save percentage and a 1.01 goals-against average. George also pitched two shutouts in the preliminary round, against Finland and Germany.
George has been good in playoff games for Canada, too. In five elimination games at the 2024 IIHF U18 Championship and 2023 Hlinka Gretzky Cup, George went 5-0, posting a .919 sv%, a 2.60 GAA, and one shutout. The 18-year-old was 12-0 as a member of Team Canada before Tuesday’s loss against the United States.
However, while goaltending could win Canada a medal, its scoring prowess, or lack thereof, could hold it back. Canada was perfect in pre-tournament action, allowing two or fewer goals in all three games, but outside of a 7-1 beatdown of Switzerland, the Canadians haven’t scored more than four goals in a game. In fact, Canada averaged just 2.5 goals per game in the preliminary round, while teams like the U.S. and Sweden averaged between five and six goals per game.
Canada is a huge moneyline favorite, but for the Canadians to cover the puck line, this game will need to be lopsided. While Canada has shut out teams like Finland and Germany, that’s unlikely to happen against Czechia. George may be the best goaltender in the tournament, and Czechia is strong at the position as well. They might even be as good as Canada offensively. The Canadians don’t have the same offensive ceiling as past squads, so this game should be closer than the odds suggest. Czechia may not win outright, but a 20% chance (+400) of going to overtime seems too low.
