Every week in the NFL season brings a host of new questions … and answers some old ones, too. Let’s run down what we learned in Week 4 … and what we’ll be wondering about in Week 5 and beyond.
Let’s begin with this: The Chiefs are 4-0. Any time you’re undefeated at the quarter-pole of the season, you’re doing just fine. That said … Patrick Mahomes is not exactly Patrick Mahomes this season. He’s 17th in passer rating, 12th in completion percentage, ninth in yards per game and 14th in yards per attempt. Only Anthony Richardson has thrown more interceptions than Mahomes’ five. Those are the kinds of numbers that will put you in the playoff conversation … but that’s about it. This season is living proof of the idea that 70 percent of Mahomes is worth 100 percent of any other quarterback.
But it’s another cliche about Mahomes — that he could turn three receivers off the street into a world-beating corps — where Kansas City could run into trouble. Rashee Rice, the team’s leading receiver, is out indefinitely with what . Add that to the losses of Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco, and it’s a grim run. The only other Chiefs receivers with more than 100 yards receiving on the season are rookie Xavier Worthy and perpetual is-he-washed question mark Travis Kelce. An elite Mahomes can raise up an unremarkable receiving corps. But what will an unremarkable Mahomes do with an anonymous receiving corps?
When we’re judging quality, certain teams get the benefit of the doubt thanks to their recent pedigree. The Bengals, for instance, are an ordinary-as-hell team, but thanks to their last few years, there’s this persistent presumption that they’ll figure it all out just fine. (Will they? TBD.) The reverse also applies — when a team is just roadkill-nasty for three decades, it takes an awful lot to reverse our expectation that they’ll once again stink up the division.
But perhaps it’s time for us to cast aside our old assumptions about Washington’s football team, to wave off the last lingering stench of Daniel Snyder, the leaky-sewage pipes of FedEx Field, the turf that cost Robert Griffin III his knees, and all the ignominious recent history of this franchise. With the Dan Quinn regime, Kliff Kingsbury’s playcalling, Jayden Daniels’ debut, and the sudden and dramatic decline of NFC East quality, this is a 3-1 team that has a legitimate shot at the division title. And we can finally feel good about rooting for their success, too. Oh, and speaking of Daniels …
Here it is, the 2024 season’s first great post-draft what-if. Through four games, Daniels has been simply spectacular, delivering beyond what anyone possibly could have expected. (If you knew that Daniels was going to post the highest completion rate in NFL history through four games, go get yourself a job as an NFL GM, right now.) Meanwhile, Williams has been unspectacular — throwing more interceptions (4) than he has touchdowns (3). Yes, yes, small sample size, but you know the question is taking flight in the Windy City … did Chicago make another mistake in selecting a quarterback? We all know about the decision to take Mitchell Trubisky when Mahomes was still on the board — and apparently , too — so has Chicago missed out on a third straight all-everything quarterback? It’s way too early to write off Williams — or write on Daniels, for that matter — but early on, there’s surely a creeping dread winding its way through Da Fanbase.
Every time a decent team starts the season 0-2, the same statistics about how few 0-2 teams make the playoffs bubble up. And every single season, an 0-2 team stomps through its next few games and wipes everyone’s memory of their ugly start. No one can stomp quite like Derrick Henry, and that’s exactly what happened Sunday night against the Bills. Henry dropped 199 yards — including an 87-yard touchdown — right on the skulls of the no-really-this-is-the-year Bills. Combining Lamar Jackson’s skillset with a legitimate threat at running back is a potent one-two punch, and you’ve got a team that’s back in the upper echelon of the AFC, right where it ought to be.
If you’re a wagering fan — and the NFL now expects you to be — you wouldn’t make a whole lot of money on Jets props like “Aaron Rodgers squabbling with his coach” and “Aaron Rodgers looking like a pale green shadow of his MVP era.” Obvious or not, that’s where we are now with Rodgers and the Jets. After last week’s #HugGate, where Rodgers from head coach Robert Saleh, we now have #CadenceGate, where Rodgers and Saleh are shading each other over. The Jets built their team around Rodgers, and his numbers have been aggressively ordinary through the first four weeks of the season. A playoff berth isn’t out of the question, but the Jets are a long way from the elite tier of the AFC, and Rodgers will need to step up big to lead them there.
When Cleveland declined to offer Baker Mayfield a long-term contract extension in 2021, the verdict appeared clear — ex-Heisman Trophy winner who’d hit his talent ceiling in the pros. As it turned out — and as we should have probably known at the time — this was more an indictment of the Browns’ analytical capabilities than Mayfield’s talent. Following a couple cups of coffee in Los Angeles and Carolina, Mayfield ended up in Tampa Bay as, effectively, a rebound relationship after the loss of Brady. Lo and behold, Mayfield has turned into a legit threat, hurling more touchdowns so far than anyone this side of Sam Darnold. He ranks in the top 10 in all major statistical passing categories, and Tampa Bay is once again a respectable playoff contender. It’s one of the more remarkable career resurrections — again, this side of Sam Darnold — and Tampa Bay is feeling a whole lot more confident about its quarterback than a lot of NFC teams.
It seems weird to say that the Eagles are in trouble, given that they’re one Saquon Barkley dropped pass from being 3-1, but there’s little in this team that inspires confidence. Injuries have annihilated the receiving corps, Jalen Hurts is underperforming, and Nick Sirianni is bringing all the inspirational fire of an unplugged television. Combine that with a checked-out performance against Tampa Bay and a divisional rivalry with the intensely focused Commanders, and you’ve got the potential for a spiraling season. Fortunately for Philly, there are four straight winnable games ahead — Cleveland, the Giants, Cincinnati and Jacksonville — that will give the Eagles the chance to get right. Anything less than 3-1 in that run and Eagles fans will be climbing the lightpoles.
A quarter-century of astounding success tends to obliterate all memory of historic futility, but here’s the truth: Before Brady and Belichick, the Patriots were terrible, and it turns out that after Brady and Belichick, they’re pretty terrible too. The Week 1 victory over Cincinnati now seems more like a harbinger of doom for the Bengals than a sign of progress for the Patriots. New England is averaging 13 points a game and has no discernible quarterback play, a couple of stats that don’t exactly jibe with the good ol’ days in Foxborough. But with all those New England Super Bowl rings still very much in the living memory of every NFL fan over the age of three, the Patriots won’t get any sympathy from the rest of the league until, oh, 2035.
