The NBA offseason’s officially here. In addition to negotiating with their own free agents, teams are now permitted to negotiate with free agents from rival teams (though new contracts can’t be signed until the NBA’s moratorium is lifted July 6). Here’s some quick-hitting analysis on the biggest deals reached on the first day of free agency.
Sometimes an NBA transaction just feels right. This is one of those times.
San Antonio may not be the ring-chasing endgame some had in mind for one of the best point guards of all time, but in so many ways it feels like the perfect place for Paul to play one of the last seasons (if not the last season) of his illustrious career; a place where he can play for a legendary coach he’s admired and competed against for two decades, and where he can mentor and feed lobs to a generational talent 19 years his junior, without the burden of expectations that soured his brief Golden State sojourn.
This isn’t purely sentimentalism, either. Paul can still play, and the on-court fit makes a lot of sense. On balance, the Spurs were a 22-win doormat last season, but put Victor Wembanyama on the court with anything resembling a competent floor general and they morphed into a playoff-caliber outfit. To wit: they outscored opponents by 4.3 points per 100 possessions in nearly 1,300 minutes with both Wembanyama and Tre Jones on the floor.
What San Antonio needed a lot of the time was someone capable and willing to deliver Wemby the ball. And Paul, even at age 39, is one of the most capable and willing distributors in the sport. Their two-man game could be legitimately dangerous. Paul’s entry passing and hit-aheads will also be helpful in getting the young phenom easy early offense.
Paul has a chance to be a positive influence not only on Wembanyama but on all the Spurs’ youngsters, from Jones to Devin Vassell to Jeremy Sochan to new draftee Stephon Castle. You can scoff at the unquantifiable value of that kind of thing, but players often go out of their way to tell you how much it matters. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander still talks about the impact Paul had on him during their one season together in Oklahoma City.
Besides, if it doesn’t work out, what’s the downside? The Spurs are on the long-term development track, and aren’t going to hit the accelerator until Wemby forces their hand. This move comes with basically no risk, but with plenty of opportunity for fun, feelings, and some wins along the way. – Joe Wolfond
Whatever you think about the Clippers as a concept, however doomed you think they are in their current form, keeping Harden on a short-term deal with a manageable price tag is a win. The second-year player option makes it less team friendly, and the prospect of doing the same year-to-year dance with Harden in 2025 doesn’t sound appealing, but it’s better than feeling pressured into locking up the soon-to-be 35-year-old long term, or letting him walk for nothing.
Of course, the Clippers are letting Paul George walk for nothing, which means this offseason is a disaster no matter what and the team’s championship window is firmly shut (if it wasn’t already). But unless Harden falls off a cliff, he and Kawhi Leonard can still keep this team respectable, and if the front office decides to pivot, this deal should make Harden a very appealing trade chip.
Harden when healthy and engaged is still capable of playing at an All-Star level. He had a rocky start with L.A. after being traded there a couple weeks into last season, but then hit his stride and for about two months played some of the most fluid and selfless basketball of his career. He gave the Clippers the offensive organizer they’d long sorely lacked, and made them look like legit championship contenders in the process. Even after wheezing to the finish line, he ended the season with a 61% true-shooting clip, and the Clippers performed seven points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor. He had a couple monster performances in the first round of the playoffs, too.
This deal isn’t going to alleviate any of the despair in Clipperland, but it’s good business all the same.
The same can be said of signing Jones using the bulk of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception that was made available to L.A. when it became clear George wouldn’t be re-signing. Jones provides a massive jolt of athleticism that’s in fairly short supply on this Clippers team, and he’s arguably a better overall defender than George is at this point.
It’s obviously an enormous offensive downgrade, and a team that was once stuffed to the gills with shooters is now going to have a very tough time spacing the floor. Jones did shoot a career-best 34% from 3-point range last season and 37% in the playoffs, but he likely won’t be getting the same kinds of looks in L.A. as he did playing with Luka Doncic in Dallas.
Alas, this is what you get when the MLE is what you have to work with. There was never going to be any replacing George. This is about as well as the Clippers could’ve done under the self-imposed circumstances. – Wolfond
One of the NBA’s more exciting young teams adds one of the game’s best veteran role players, a two-time champ who gives the Magic’s already-nasty defense another ace point-of-attack stopper while also providing a sorely needed 3-point threat. Caldwell-Pope is basically a way better version of what Gary Harris was for Orlando last season.
He may not shoot 42% from deep like he did across his two seasons alongside Nikola Jokic in Denver, but he should still get plenty of quality looks orbiting Paolo Banchero’s on-ball gravity. His ability to shoot off of movement will be a huge boon to a team that finished 25th in 3-point attempt rate and 24th in 3-point percentage last season. Caldwell-Pope is also an adept and experienced guard screener, and the Magic should mine some great stuff out of him screening for Banchero and Franz Wagner. Meanwhile, he and Jalen Suggs will form one of the league’s most stifling perimeter defensive tandems.
The Magic still need a legitimate offensive lead guard, but adding Caldwell-Pope shouldn’t preclude them from acquiring that missing piece. Though it does jam up their ability (for now) to make a competitive free-agent offer to George, as they’re left with just shy of $30 million in cap space, it wouldn’t have been worth passing up the chance to sign KCP because they were holding out for a PG pipe dream. And hey, if that pipe dream comes true and George indicates he’s prepared to sign there, Orlando can probably find a way to clear another $20-odd million off its books.
Unless or until that happens, this team is probably still too flawed to be taken seriously as a legitimate contender. But it’s a rising young power that’s now a bit more dangerous. – Wolfond
A year ago, a minimum contract for Jones Jr. turned out to be one of the biggest bargains in the league, as he played a key role in Dallas’ run to the Finals. This time next year, we might again be talking about how the Mavs made one of the offseason’s best low-key moves.
Marshall’s a grimy defensive forward coming off the best shooting season of his career (38.7% on 2.3 3-point attempts per game) while serving as a member of one of the league’s best benches in New Orleans. His 42% conversion rate from the corners may have been an aberration, but the drive-and-kick creation of Doncic and Kyrie Irving will put Marshall in advantageous positions to build on that career year. It’s also a fantastic result for an unheralded player who went undrafted four years ago.
This is a great get for the reigning Western Conference champions, with the only downside being it appears Jones’ brief time in Dallas is over. – Joseph Casciaro
After trading for and re-signing two-time All-Star Pascal Siakam, and with 2023 No. 8 pick Jarace Walker entering his sophomore season, no one would’ve blinked if fellow power forward Obi Toppin found himself the odd man out in Indiana. That the Pacers instead re-signed him long term is a testament to Toppin’s fit with Tyrese Haliburton.
Toppin’s transition game makes him a perfect match for the Pacers, who look to push the ball up the court at every opportunity. That fit led to a career year for Toppin, who supplemented his efficient interior scoring with an improved stroke from behind the arc. In his first season as a Pacer after three up-and-down seasons as a Knick, Toppin averaged 10.3 points while shooting 70.6% inside the arc and 40.3% from deep.
His lackluster defense is part of a larger problem in Indiana, but Toppin is a low-maintenance offensive role player who knows his job, does it well, and fits the system the Eastern Conference finalists want to play. An average salary of $15 million might seem steep, but it’s far from egregious in today’s booming NBA economy. – Casciaro
For all of Drummond’s well-documented offensive limitations, he’s quietly become a very solid reserve who’s coming off his best season in years. The 30-year-old remains one of the league’s absolute best rebounders, posting 100th percentile marks in both offensive and defensive rebound rate in 2023-24, according to Cleaning The Glass. In fact, Drummond’s offensive rebound rate ranks in the 96th percentile or higher among big men in every season of his 12-year career, while his defensive rebound rate has ranked in the 98th percentile or higher for 10 straight seasons.
For a Sixers team always looking for quality center minutes off the bench behind Joel Embiid, reuniting with Drummond (who spent part of the 2021-22 campaign in Philly) at this price is nice work.
As for Gordon, the former Sixth Man of the Year may be a shell of his former self, but contenders can never have enough shooting. Bringing him to Philadelphia on a veteran’s minimum is nothing to sneeze at. The 35-year-old still converted 37.8% of his 5.8 3-point attempts per game in 2023-24, which accounted for more than 64% of his shot diet. – Casciaro
Valanciunas’ once-improved perimeter shooting fell off last season and his defensive mobility is a concern, but he remains an efficient interior scorer, a good rebounder, and a durable big man. The 12-year vet started all 82 games for a 49-win Pelicans team that ranked sixth on defense and 11th on offense. An average salary of $10 million for a player of that caliber is fine value, but three years for a 32-year-old center who’s declining is a little puzzling from the perspective of a rebuilding Washington team.
The Wizards remain perplexing, though perhaps they view the veteran as a potential trade chip going forward. Valanciunas’ presence (along with the recently re-signed Richaun Holmes) could also be good for recent draft pick Alex Sarr. As for JV, who hasn’t been part of a rebuilding situation since his rookie year in Toronto, it seems obvious Washington outbid other suitors. – Casciaro
Love was quietly excellent as Bam Adebayo’s backup last season, gobbling up rebounds and slinging full-court outlet passes while continuing to serve as a credible stretch-big. He put up per-36 averages of 18.9 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 4.5 assists on 60% true shooting, and had the Heat’s second-best on-court net rating.
But he’ll also turn 36 before next season starts, his defense is always going to be an issue (even though he’s held up reasonably well in Miami’s zone-heavy system), and he proved to be unplayable in the first round against Boston. All those things considered, this feels like a pretty fair deal for both player and team. – Wolfond
Phoenix gets a backup center who’s better than Drew Eubanks. – Wolfond
