Even as the leaves across Canada are turning colours before our eyes, one community is experiencing a rare September phenomenon that defies the season.
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The average high temperature during the month of September has continually crept upward in Churchill, Manitoba, over the past couple of years, culminating in a startling 18.4°C so far this month.
What does this unusual warmth mean for the Arctic port town in northern Manitoba?
The 870 residents of Churchill, located on the western shore of Hudson Bay, have been feeling the September heat—an unusual feat for a town known as the polar bear capital of the world.
Resilient ridges of high pressure that have kept Ontario toasty for the past few weeks have also made northern Manitoba the continent’s hot spot this month. The region has seen the greatest temperature anomalies found in all of North America so far this September.
Churchill’s average high has risen every September for the past couple of years.
This month’s average temperature through Sept. 20 is especially shocking given that 18.4°C is warmer than any monthly average temperature throughout the entire year, including July’s average of 18.3°C.
Overall, average maximum temperatures across the area have been on the rise in recent decades. The 1961-1990 average of 8.8°C represents a different climate era, as the latest 1991-2020 average is now 10.3°C.
For reference, Churchill’s coolest September average temperature was just 4.7°C recorded back in 1974. This year will almost certainly go down as the warmest on record.
Things aren’t looking much cooler in the long range.
A quick dose of cooler weather sliding across the Prairies this weekend will be replaced by another ridge of high pressure that’ll turn the heat up for the arrival of autumn.
A very warm pattern is expected across the Prairies through the end of September and into early October, with temperatures running 5-10 degrees above seasonal throughout the region.
