I realize a fade piece might not be the easiest thing to read, because some of these players will be favorites of yours, and surely on some of your fantasy football rosters. I share the same ambivalence. But to make the best decisions possible in life, we have to try to be divorced from emotion — the rational and emotional sides of us seldom work collaboratively.
Here are some big-name players I am unlikely to select as we navigate through the teeth of fantasy football draft season.
Barkley is headed to a better team at a key time, as he enters his age-27 season. But how much of Barkley’s explosion is left? He’s averaged an ordinary 4.4 yards per touch the last four seasons. Jalen Hurts could also be a problem for Barkley’s value, as Hurts carries a ton of goal-line equity and he usually doesn’t throw much to his running backs.
Gibbs is perhaps my most difficult incision on this list, as I love the Lions offense, especially with the team retaining all key members (including play designer Ben Johnson). But Gibbs routinely falls around the 12-13 turn in many leagues and that feels early for a player who’s never guaranteed to lead his team in touches or goal-line opportunities. If you’re open to an explosive player with those caveats, note you can probably land De’Von Achane about a round later.
Adams has already punched a Hall of Fame ticket in my eyes, but things could go sideways in Las Vegas this year as the Raiders try to navigate an offense that doesn’t really have a bonafide quarterback. Gardner Minshew won the starting job this summer, for now, despite a paltry 48.5 completion percentage, compiled largely against backup defenders and vanilla defenses. Adams is also 32, which allows for some modest skills erosion.
Kelce might as well be a pitcher for the Dodgers these days; he’s a back-nine player on a juggernaut team who’s already planning for the playoffs even before the season starts. The Chiefs used Kelce as a load-management player last year — take it easy in-season, turn it on for the playoffs — and now, with Kelce heading into his age-35 campaign and coming off another championship, it’s doubtful that plan changes. The Kansas City receiver room has also been improved, the most impressive it’s looked since the departure of Tyreek Hill. I see the blank space on your roster, but don’t write Kelce’s name in it.
Here’s another Canton-bound receiver who’s not in my 2024 plans. Offensive guru Dave Canales is fully in my circle of trust — at this point, I’d follow the guy into a burning building. He coached up career years from Geno Smith two years ago and Baker Mayfield last season.
But note that Smith had a collapse season last year (due to many things, but one of them was Canales leaving), and ask yourself just how much you trust Mayfield without his offensive wizard behind the curtain (Canales, of course, is now skippering the Panthers). Evans is also entering his age-31 season, and I’d prefer to trend younger with most of my early picks.
I’ve been banging this drum all summer, so it’s probably a review at this point. Kamara’s another aging player with efficiency hissing out of the balloon — he didn’t even have a run over 20 yards last year. The Saints offensive line is considered one of the worst in the league, and when New Orleans gets close, it doesn’t prioritize Kamara for the easy touchdowns — he’s spiked just 10 times in his last 28 games. (Close your eyes, can’t you see Taysom Hill plunging in from the one?).
Derek Carr will help prop up Kamara’s value with a bundle of short passes, even as they’re not really useful anymore. But given Kamara’s career arc and declining skills, I can’t target him in drafts this year.
Often times a fade will be more about the situation and circumstance than the player involved. Aiyuk was always a candidate to give up some of last season’s dreamy efficiency, and he obviously isn’t happy after a summer of contract stress. The ADPs between Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel has been close all summer — I’d rather focus on the versatile Samuel if I’m looking for a receiver in that pocket.
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Maybe Richardson is ready to pay off his expectant ADP, which has him pushed up to the QB5 in Yahoo drafts. But you can land Jayden Daniels about 40 picks later, and his upside feels just as exciting to me (and Daniels had considerably more reps in college).
Even if you miss both of these quarterbacks, what’s the worry? The position is as deep as ever. If you miss a train in New York, you catch the next one, seven minutes later.
While conceding that most receivers have boom-and-bust flow to their profile, Metcalf feels like a player who’s especially wired that way. I’m hopeful that new OC Ryan Grubb can get the Seattle passing game cooking again. But when I consider the Seahawks receiver room, I want to leave an open spot for a later pick on ascending Jaxon Smith-Njigba, as opposed to the leveled-off shape of Metcalf’s career.
He’s long been one of my favorite players, and it’s no fun to play fantasy football like an actuary. But Chubb’s coming off a monstrous left-knee injury, and that’s the same left knee he also blew out in college. It’s simply not practical to project him to be a dynamic runner in 2024, and of course we don’t even know when Chubb’s debut will come (he’s on the PUP list for now). Jerome Ford has been available as a cheap fantasy option all summer; consider him.
Here’s another shot at the misguided Injury Optimism concept. Hockenson’s tore his ACL and MCL around Christmas last year, so his rehab still has a ways to go. And when he does come back, he’ll be stepping into an offense probably helmed by journeyman QB Sam Darold.
I know a lot of fantasy managers will pitch for Hockenson, noting the presence of their IR slots. However, eventually the real games will start, and you’ll have more important players demanding those slots. Hockenson is completely removed from my 2024 plans.
WR George Pickens, Steelers: I don’t trust Arthur Smith or the Pittsburgh quarterbacks, though Justin Fields would probably run to fantasy relevance if they call his number.
RB Rashaad White, Buccaneers: White needs tons of volume, and Tampa Bay’s offense likely to regress.
RB Zamir White, Raiders: White is an ordinary talent who will share time, and the offense might be headed nowhere.
WR Curtis Samuel, Bills: Samuel suffered a turf toe injury at the wrong time, and familiar WR Khalil Shakir has always been my preferred answer in this room.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots: He’s a fine player, but he’s tied to the team with the lowest win expectancy in the league.
