In the early rounds of your fantasy football drafts, we want certainty. You ask yourself, “Why am I drafting this player?” And, when you weigh the pros and cons of drafting players like CeeDee Lamb or Christian McCaffrey, there’s really not a lot that could go wrong.
Sure, they could get hurt, but that applies to every player in the fantasy football rankings. Maybe they get in trouble like Jordan Addison or Rashee Rice, but those guys don’t have a history of that kind of behavior. It’s really not hard to click the button on a player you trust in the first round.
After the first round or so though, the cons start building up. Every player is going to have their flaws. And, at a certain point, the question flips. You stop asking, “Why am I drafting this player?” And you start asking, “Why not?” Uncertainty at that point becomes our FRIEND. Because that’s where the breakouts often come from – an uncertain situation creates opportunity. And someone takes advantage.
Today, we’re going to look at three different types of uncertainties – scheme changes, personnel changes and potential injuries. And we’ll also discuss how the 2024 Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide will have you prepped and ready for all of these situations so that you can take advantage. Because, in games like fantasy football or poker, there’s always a little luck involved. But, if you work hard and pay attention to the right details, you can shift the odds in your favor!
In 2018, Adam Gase was the head coach of the Miami Dolphins. And, in his offense, Mike Gesicki played most of his snaps inline with his hand in the dirt, blocking on nearly 18% of his pass plays. He finished as the TE52 in fantasy. The following year, Gase was fired and Chad O’Shea’s scheme had Gesicki playing more slot and blocking on only 2.4% of pass plays. That year, he was a TE1 in fantasy.
The scheme absolutely influences the outcomes for certain players. We never know for sure what the new coaching staffs are going to do. I mean, half the game of football is trying to guess what your opponent is going to do next. But we do know the tendencies of some of these coaches.
For instance, we’ve seen branches of the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree leave and implement that offense which uses a fullback. We’ve written about what that could mean in New Orleans for the Saints when Klint Kubiak shows up. The Patriots also called ZERO tight end screens last year, while Alex Van Pelt’s Browns called the second most of any team. We discussed the impact he could have as the new Patriots offensive coordinator.
But those free articles are just touching on a couple of specific situations we like. Every year, our own Howard Bender breaks down the scheme and scheme changes for EVERY NFL team in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide. The first of those articles are hitting this week, so make sure you’re all set up for that fantasy goodness. There is a lot less uncertainty when you do a deep dive into the changes and, luckily for us, Howard leaves no stone unturned!
This is often the biggest one. And some can be pretty obvious. The Vikings traded Stefon Diggs then drafted Justin Jefferson in the first round. That opportunity was pretty clear. When the Falcons draft Bijan Robinson at 8 overall, you know he’s going to get an opportunity. And sure enough, he was a top 10 fantasy football RB.
But it’s not always that simple. Look at the Los Angeles Rams. They went all in to win a Super Bowl – and it worked. But they did give up a lot of future assets along the way to acquire Matthew Stafford. That left them a little thin. And with that there was uncertainty both in the running back and wide receiver rooms.
Of course, Cooper Kupp was on top of that depth chart. But it was uncertain after that. And fifth round rookie Puka Nacua was able to capitalize, lighting up the league with the best season a rookie WR has ever had. He finished as WR4 in PPR. We have two unique tools in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide to help with this.
Our Running Back Questionnaire looks at all the different roles for RBs – from first down to goal line to two-minute drill – and asks which player on the depth chart is best suited for each. Our Target Totem Pole not only identifies the locked in guys at the top of the pecking order, but also where there is uncertainty and room for upside – like with the Rams last year. Both charts can also help with this next facet of upside.
Injuries suck. There’s no doubt about that. We don’t root for them and we certainly don’t celebrate them if they happen. But they also create a unique path to upside in fantasy football that can’t be ignored. Just think about the 2023 tight end landscape.
Guys like Trey McBride, Isaiah Likely, and Tucker Kraft were unstartable in your fantasy leagues. When Zach Ertz, Mark Andrews, and Luke Musgrave get down, now they are cracking lineups. Likely and McBride, from those points on, were top five fantasy football tight ends.
So, that’s what we do. We ask, “if Player X gets hurt, does that create a new fantasy-relevant asset?” For direct handcuffs like Likely behind Andrews, it does. For a guy like Dallas Goedert, if EITHER of A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith get hurt, now he’s a top two target on the team. For players like Noah Fant, Dalton Schultz or Cole Kmet, however, how many players need to get hurt for him to be a top two target on the team? For Kmet, it might need to be Gerald Everett AND two wide receivers for him to have big upside.
Not all situations are created equally. And that’s what we dig into with the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide. Not only do the RB Questionnaire and Target Totem Pole highlight those beneficiaries, but the Dynamic Tier Rankings help identify risk vs. reward and upside vs. ceiling. Sure, we provide the typical linear rankings that you can get anywhere. But, if you take fantasy football seriously like us, you need every edge to win your league.
I’m going to let you in on a little secret. Obviously, the Draft Guide is available right now and you’ll want a copy. But we have another deal going for our All-Pro Membership – that gives you access to EVERYTHING! All articles and tools for ALL sports! And it gets you access to our premium Discord, where you can talk ball directly with us every day. And play in our members only leagues!
If you use promo code LETSGO, you get 50% off your first month. That comes with the Draft Guide and Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet, and that first month is actually cheaper than the Draft Guide itself. That deal is for a limited time so, if you plan to get a Draft Guide, you might as well check out EVERYTHING we have to offer.
With that, you’ll be right there in the conversation when these NFL injuries happen as we figure out exactly who is going to win leagues this year. There is a reason that most fantasy leagues see some of the same names at the top and some of the same names towards the bottom each year. Become a Fantasy Alarm member and be one of those top dogs!
