This week’s Make or Break article is focused on one key aspect to success for borderline players: opportunity. Volume is king in fantasy football and when your time comes for increased opportunity, can you take advantage?
I’ve got two running backs and a wide receiver plus two tight ends with intriguing opportunities this week — and some potentially creative usage that could provide you with league-winning upside.
Just when we were starting to feel more confident in Javonte Williams, he hit us with a seven-fantasy-point performance in what should’ve been an excellent matchup against the Panthers. The issue wasn’t opportunity. Williams had 17 carries and four receptions. They just yielded a total of 52 yards and he was outperformed by Jaleel McLaughlin, who managed more rushing yards on half the carries and added a touchdown.
This brings uncomfortable flashbacks to the early season when Williams constantly seemed on the verge of losing his job and was underperforming significantly. However, I wouldn’t anticipate a sudden shift in snap count or touches. Even with McLaughlin outperforming Williams in prior games, Sean Payton never pivoted away from Williams. Still, it’s a bit concerning, especially given this week’s matchup against a Baltimore Ravens defense that’s been vulnerable against the pass and tough against the run. Last week, Nick Chubb was the first back to exceed 50 rushing yards on the Ravens this year — he managed 52 yards on 16 attempts.
Although efficiency stats favor McLaughlin, who holds the edge in rush yards over expected per attempt according to Next Gen Stats, the Broncos clearly trust Williams more in pass protection and receiving work, which could soften the blow of what should be a low-yardage day in a terrible matchup. The run game could be sidelined and Williams may rely on check-downs to salvage his fantasy day.
But a player whose day solely depends on check-downs is a high-risk, low-reward play.
The Raiders offense is shaky at best. Aside from Brock Bowers, we are typically very wary of leaning into Vegas fantasy assets. However, Meyers is a player who is being widely overlooked.
The destitute nature of the Raiders’ quarterback situation masks the fact that Meyers has actually had a decent season. Meyers is currently WR30 in average points per game, equating to 10.4 fantasy points per game — which might not seem like a lot, but for perspective, that’s similar to players like Zay Flowers, Marvin Harrison Jr. and DJ Moore.
Meyers has had a fine overall year; he just doesn’t have that brand name. In games without Davante Adams, Meyers has seen a little bump in volume, but it’s been difficult to gauge because the games have been against Cleveland, Denver and Kansas City. This week he gets a much-needed break in the form of the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals defense has been a little bit all over the place, but they are vulnerable through the air. Despite how inconsistent the Bengals offense has been, I fully expect them to take advantage of this matchup, forcing the Raiders to abandon the run and push volume through the air. This week combines the perfect scenario for volume and a good matchup, which could easily result in Meyers’ best performance of the year.
Technically speaking, there’s little chance Meyers actually breaks your lineup. Even with the quarterback struggles, his target share ensures a sub-five-point fantasy performance is unlikely. However, with the increased ceiling this week, you should lean into the high upside opportunity.
Welcome back to the Make or Break list, Chase Brown!
We missed you and quite frankly, you probably should’ve never left. Watching the Bengals’ backfield this season has been one of the most frustrating experiences for me personally. Brown’s progression has been expected. We knew coming in that Zack Moss was viewed as the lead back and Brown started the season taking a backseat to him. The vision here was that as the season progressed, Brown would continue to push forward, potentially outperforming Moss and eventually ascending as the Bengals’ lead back.
Unfortunately, Brown’s rise seems to have stalled at a level he just can’t break through, largely because the Bengals refuse to phase out Moss. Their reluctance is perplexing — perhaps they don’t want to overwhelm either back — but advanced statistics clearly favor Brown. He has a higher rush yards over expected rate at 41.6% (Next Gen Stats), while Moss sits at a modest 28.6%. Brown also boasts a respectable 4.6 yards per carry, compared to Moss’ 3.3. Neither back holds a significant advantage in receiving work out of the backfield, leaving us in a sort of no man’s land where neither has a high ceiling unless the other suffers an injury.
In an ideal matchup, both backs could have upside. We saw it in Week 4 against Carolina, where Brown posted 80 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while Moss added 51 rushing yards and caught a receiving touchdown. This week, the matchup is against a Raiders defense that’s been generous on the ground, allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Goal-line opportunities should be plentiful in this matchup.
If there’s a week for Brown to flash that ceiling we saw back in Week 4, this would be it.
I know what you’re thinking: “But Tera, how can Engram and Otton be make-or-break players when they’re literally top 10 ranked tight ends right now?”
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Well, we’re not here to talk about Engram and Otton as make-or-break-tight ends. We’re here to talk about them as make-or-break flex options.
Yes! A double tight end strategy this week, one of my personal DFS favorites that can be applied just as effectively in season-long leagues.
Here’s the thing: if you drafted someone like Travis Kelce or Trey McBride, you probably don’t have a secondary option sitting on your roster. However, fantasy managers with Engram or Otton likely have other tight ends rostered. If you drafted Engram, you planned for him to be your TE1 but had to roster another option while he dealt with an injury. Maybe you picked up Tucker Kraft, so now you’re sitting with two top 10 options.
If you have Otton, you likely didn’t draft him but picked him up recently, possibly due to poor performances from your drafted tight end or to capitalize on Otton’s ascending upside.
Both players have the potential to be flex-worthy options this week.
With the widespread receiver injuries this season, double tight end setups could become more common. I personally flexed Otton last week while starting Brock Bowers. We know Otton has significant upside and will likely be Baker Mayfield’s first look for the next few weeks. With Christian Kirk lost for the season and Brian Thomas Jr. dealing with an injury — though the latest update on Thomas suggests the injury is less serious than feared — Engram should see increased value this week. We’ve seen the logic with Otton but if you need support evidence with Engram, we can look to last season.
In 2023, we saw ample evidence that Kirk’s absence creates extreme upside for Ingram. When Kirk was injured in Week 13 last season, Ingram exploded, becoming the overall TE1 from Weeks 13 to 18, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game. For context, that’s the same number George Kittle is averaging this season.
In terms of other positions, a 15.2 average would make Ingram WR7 or RB12 this season. His ceiling without Kirk is phenomenal. Otton and Engram are in play as strong flex options that could make your lineup this week.
