As I parsed through Yahoo’s ADP looking for the perfect make-or-break candidates for this fantasy football season, several high-risk, early-round running backs stuck out like sore thumbs.
You could argue that a quarterback like Anthony Richardson is a make-or-break candidate given his ADP and limited experience, but rushing upside gives him a solid floor and ensures he’ll finish as a QB1 if he remains healthy.
A receiver like Garrett Wilson is a risk with a Round 1 ADP despite never finishing higher than a W3 in average points per game, but even at 40 years old and coming off a major injury, Aaron Rodgers bumps Wilson up to a strong WR1 candidate.
The tight end ADPs have dipped as a whole, meaning missing on a tight end doesn’t have a true season-ruining impact.
It’s running backs who present the highest level of volatility combined with their ADPs that will define your fantasy season, but which running backs are the true make-or-break players for fantasy in 2024?
I was debating whether or not to include Williams because if you’ve followed my work with Yahoo this preseason, you know I have true conviction in Williams as a Round 2 pick. As I was debating his inclusion, Sean McVay announced that Williams will be returning punts this season and sent fantasy football managers into a downward spiral of doom and gloom and “I told you so’s.”
When the NFL changed the rules for kick returns, we expected some potential big names to try their hand at returning. However, the idea of punt returns for a 5-9, 194-pound starting running back feels like malpractice … or punishment. Williams isn’t a stranger to punt returns, but unnecessary touches do raise cause for concern. To be clear though, fantasy managers should not take this as an indication Williams has lost his job. McVay’s exact quote was:
“It’s another opportunity for him to get touches and impact the game. And you feel comfortable with that because of the confidence in Blake Corum and Ronnie Rivers being able to spell him if need be.”
Alarming, but not Cam Akers’ level of alarming.
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It sounds like McVay simply wants to use Williams in creative ways and this is an excellent reminder that we haven’t actually seen any relevant Rams’ running back in preseason. We truly don’t know the intended workload split. The Rams avoid using preseason for starters or fringe starters. Even a player like Tutu Atwell saw no usage during preseason. Neither Williams, Corum nor Rivers have made a preseason appearance. This means we’re going into the season blind and simply trusting Williams will retain his role.
Again, I trust Williams will be the Rams’ clear RB1 and thrive as long as he stays on the field. However, Williams is a pick that will dictate the direction of your fantasy season. Williams had over 1,100 rushing yards, averaging five yards per carry with 12 rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns in just 12 games. If he repeats that usage, he’s the single best pick at running back behind Christian McCaffrey. He’ll either carry you into the playoffs or leave you scraping the waiver waiver for a new RB1. There’s no in-between.
Achane is very similar to Williams in that he’s a smaller back with a history of injury issues and a high ADP. The difference between the two backs is that Williams is the presumed RB1 based on being the clear RB1 in 2023. Achane wasn’t the Dolphins’ starter in 2023, and we have zero indication he’ll be the clear RB1 in 2024.
Achane’s ADP is a pure upside play. When you have the impact on fantasy football that Achane had in 2023, you earn an elevated ADP. However, the fact remains that Raheem Mostert is still very much a part of the Dolphins’ offense and finished as the overall RB2 in half-PPR and RB3 in average points per game. It’s important to note that Achane’s high ADP isn’t pulled from thin air. Achane was the RB4 in average points per game last season — yes, the Dolphins produced two top-five backs.
When you continue to dive into the individual stats, it’s clear why Achane is the preferred back for fantasy managers heading into 2024. Mostert had the better volume stats, but Achane had a whopping 7.8 yards per attempt, 21 runs of greater than 20 yards compared to Mostert’s 12 and a higher fantasy points per snap rate. Achane was simply more explosive and more productive. Mostert was still excellent but Achane’s stats were unreal.
Achane’s potential is through the roof but it remains to be seen if it can be carried throughout an entire season. With a borderline Round 2 ADP and no clear RB1 role, Achane is potentially the most “make or break” player of 2024.
When you look at Robinson’s 2023 overall finish of RB9 in half-PPR and RB17 in average points per game, you’re very encouraged for his potential in 2024. Robinson has escaped Author Smith (my personal archnemesis) and has a true overall RB1 ceiling.
Robinson is in the perfect situation to take a massive leap and justify his ADP. Kirk Cousins isn’t a threat at the goal line. The Falcons have arguably the easiest schedule in the entire league and should play in positive game scripts that benefit Robinson and provide ample goal-line opportunities.
On the other hand, when you compare Robinson to his Round 1 counterparts at running back, he’s clearly the most likely candidate to undershoot his ceiling. Christian McCaffrey is the reigning RB1 with multiple top-three finishes. After a four-game ramp-up post-ACL injury, Breece Hall was the overall RB2 from Week 5 through the remainder of the season. Jonathan Taylor has an overall RB1 season under his belt as well.
I’m 100% confident that Robinson will return strong value on his ADP, but I recognize Robinson is an absolute make-or-break player who will either carry you to the playoffs or leave you frustrated and underwhelmed.
