A couple of weeks ago on the Yahoo Fantasy Football Forecast, I joked with Matt Harmon that if Andy Behrens can brand himself as the “kickers analyst,” I was going to do a rebrand to a tight end specialist.
After this article, the joke might manifest into reality because we are talking unheralded tight ends!
Yes, the young guys like Brock Bowers and Trey McBride are thriving this year, but who can we turn to outside the top plays? When it comes to streaming options, older veterans are on the rise.
Let’s discuss who we can trust moving forward coming off some very interesting Week 11 performances.
Let’s kick things off by talking about everyone’s favorite “tight end” who’s not really a tight end. As I mentioned over the past couple of weeks in my shameful promotion of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the Saints essentially have no reliable high-volume pass-catchers in the absence of Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. This creates opportunities for non-traditional receivers to become target hogs in the Saints’ offense.
When we think of receiving options, Hill doesn’t usually come to mind. Despite being labeled as a tight end, his value has come from his rushing production. Make no mistake — his production on the ground this week was phenomenal. Hill had seven carries for 138 yards and three rushing touchdowns. On top of that, he saw a massive 10 targets, catching eight of them for 50 yards.
The Saints capitalized on a struggling Browns defense, but even prior to this matchup, despite the lack of pass catchers, they’ve remained committed to maintaining a balanced offense. With Olave and Shaheed out, someone has to step up and Hill is taking on that role. With the Saints heading into a bye week, Hill isn’t usable for Week 12. But when he returns, he remains a solid TE1 rest-of-season.
We have to get comfortable with the fact that, no matter how many players are absent from the Saints offense, Hill will remain a boom-bust play. Last week, in what should’ve been a favorable matchup against Atlanta, Hill scored just six fantasy points. When you look at the tight end landscape, those six points are still worth the risk.
Heading into this week, only four tight ends were averaging 10 or more fantasy points per game and the only player above that 10 fantasy-point average was George Kittle. The difference between a bust game for Hill and a typical game for a borderline TE1 is literally just one point. Hill’s boom weeks are worth the risk.
Heading into the season, there was some optimism regarding Smith’s potential at tight end for the Dolphins. Since Mike McDaniel took over as the Dolphins’ head coach, it’s been difficult to find consistent fantasy points from any tight end in Miami. The system simply requires a certain type of tight end to thrive. We hoped that Smith was the exact type of tight end McDaniel wanted to utilize in creative ways.
It took some time for us to get there, and it’s still not incredibly reliable, but on any given week, Smith does offer overall TE1 upside. However, there’s a major difference between Smith and a player like Taysom Hill. While the difference between a down week for Hill and a low-end TE1 is minimal, Smith’s down weeks can hit rock bottom.
The reason is pretty clear: Smith plays in an offense so full of talent that even Jaylen Waddle struggles to stand out.
While Smith’s targets have been a bit more reliable over the past month, touchdowns remain his primary path to fantasy relevance. Looking at the Dolphins’ upcoming schedule, it’s not particularly favorable. Smith’s two strong performances — his only double-digit outings of the year — came in layup matchups against Indianapolis and Las Vegas. With the upcoming schedule being average at best, Smith remains a streaming option but not a tight end we can push into must-start territory. He’s a fine bye-week fill-in and Hail Mary option.
I might be uniquely qualified to talk about Ertz as I’ve been streaming him all season long in the Scott Fish Bowl, where rosters are extremely deep and tight ends have premium scoring. While streaming Ertz has been far easier in a tight end-friendly format, the same logic applies across all leagues.
Ertz has been a solid streaming option because, unlike players like Cole Kmet, where you’re trying to hit a week with a couple of touchdowns, Ertz hasn’t been touchdown-dependent and can provide a TE1 performance based on volume.
You have to do a bit of parsing through games to truly appreciate Ertz as a streaming option. Ertz was TE15 in average points per game, averaging 7.3 fantasy points per game heading into the week. However, that average includes some strange dud weeks — Week 5, where he finished as TE38 and Week 9, where he finished as TE47.
Extreme outlier games aside, the majority of his fantasy weeks have ranged from TE8 to TE17. In other words, you’re not getting top upside, but at the very least, you’re getting a mid-tier option, and sometimes that’s all you can ask for.
Streaming Ertz requires putting aside all bias that you have towards starting a 34-year-old tight end. In our eyes, Ertz is “running on one leg” and his glory days are behind him. It’s tough to wrap your head around why Washington is relying on him and refusing to move on to the flashy young Ben Sinnott. The reality is Cliff Kingsbury straight-up likes Ertz, so he’s not going anywhere.
The beauty of Ertz is that it doesn’t take a good matchup to get usable production from him. He’s succeeded against teams like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Chicago. He’s readily available on waivers (33% rostered) and a solid weekly streaming option.
I know it doesn’t seem like it, but the tight end position in New England is actually one of the more intriguing streaming options available. Henry is the clear TE1 for the Patriots but suffers from the presence of Austin Hooper. Hooper’s contributions are not fantasy-relevant, but his production caps the potential ceiling for Henry.
Henry’s overall numbers are a bit skewed because, earlier in the season with Jacoby Brissett, he had just one strong performance with a generally horrific floor, rarely reaching even three fantasy points. Since the offense turned to Drake Maye in Week 6, Henry has averaged about 8.7 fantasy points per game in half-PPR, enough to make him TE12 and a very realistic streaming option.
Henry doesn’t have the ceiling of a Jonnu Smith — a player who can get the touchdowns and volume to put up an overall TE1 week — but there’s less volatility in Henry’s production. Aside from a random dud here and there, you can plug Henry into your lineup and feel confident that you’ll get usable production. He offers safety in an often terrifying tight end landscape.
Hill isn’t the only Saints tight end worth discussing this week. Let’s talk about one of their actual tight ends, Juwan Johnson. Johnson caught all three of his targets this week for 30 yards and a touchdown — his first touchdown since Week 1.
The problem with the Saints’ tight end position is that, even excluding Hill, they don’t rely on just one tight end. Johnson has to contend with Foster Moreau. Statistically, if only one of them were in the mix, they’d likely be a stream-worthy option. However, with both in the rotation, each typically sees between two to four targets per game.
Because of the lack of volume, Johnson requires a touchdown to be fantasy-relevant. The touchdowns do happen — combined, Johnson and Moreau have five on the season. However, those touchdowns are too sporadic to rely on and, again, spread through two different players. There are a couple of friendly matchups coming after the bye week, but despite our hopes that Johnson might one day become fantasy-relevant, the reality is that even with increases in opportunities due to injuries, the volume just doesn’t exist to make him a reliable fantasy option.
