I used to be terrified of James Earl Jones.
To be clear, I never had the honor of meeting the man with one of the most distinct voices in the world. But as a kid who grew up in the ’80s, he was Darth Vader. I still maintain the Vader hallway sequence in Star Wars: Rogue One is one of the best in the series. Jones didn’t have a speaking part in it, but the weight of his voice is almost as imposing as Vader’s suit.
But as the years progressed, I knew Jones as the king of Zamunda, Mufasa or Mr. Mertle from The Sandlot. Of course, my emotions toward him shifted over time.
Now, as fantasy football managers, we find ourselves in a similar spot.
The aftermath of Week 1 is always a time to overreact. On the one hand, we’ve waited nine months to fight for a championship. The flip side is we’ve got a few months to go. But of the storylines that emerged from the season opener, these five stuck out.
Apparently, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua belong in the Highlander franchise, as only one can be a monster pass-catching option for the Rams. Either way, the 31-year-old WR had five grabs before seven minutes were off the clock in Detroit. And with Nacua “vanquished,” Kupp’s power soared to 52.2% of Matthew Stafford’s pass attempts during the second half.
Nacua’s trip to the IR erases any questions about the Triple Crown winner’s path to the top 12. In a close game against the Lions, L.A.’s 74 offensive plays tied for the second most of any squad while passing at the third-highest rate over expected. Plus, with a 7.4-yard aDOT, Kupp’s on-field deployment seamlessly fits a passing game marred by injuries along the offensive line. His usage and situation make him a top-five WR for now.
And, oh yeah, his target competition isn’t imposing, either.
Now, “isn’t imposing” isn’t the same as “aren’t useful for fantasy.” Demarcus Robinson was the third WR in 11-personnel formations with Kupp and Nacua on the field. Without Nacua, Robinson was the only non-Kupp WR to catch passes from the slot. After a strong finish in ’23, D-Rob’s familiarization with the offense should place him as the top waiver priority, but Sean McVay keeps his options open.
Per TruMedia, the Rams used three WRs on every play Sunday night. It gave rise to Tyler Johnson, who made his case throughout the offseason, out-targeting Robinson (5 to 4). Johnson lined up on the interior at the second-highest rate of any Rams’ WR and was the only pass-catcher outside of Kupp to generate an explosive play. With the Cardinals, 49ers, Bears and Packers on tap before their bye, snagging pieces of this passing game (even Jordan Whittington and TE Colby Parkinson in deeper leagues) will be savvy moves, given the offensive tendencies.
I legitimately thought the 49ers’ inactive list on Monday night was fake. I kept checking the handle for a misspelled Schefter in the name, but nevertheless.
As expected, Jordan Mason slid into the RB1 role for San Francisco. Without a doubt, the “RBs Don’t Matter” crowd is cheering at how seamlessly the UDFA slid into the two-time All-Pro’s role.
Rush Rate: 78.0% (Mason – Week 1), 59.0% (McCaffrey – 2023)
Two-Minute Snap Rate: 100.0%, 73.0%
Inside the five-yard Line Rush Rate: 67.0%, 62.0%
However, there’s still hope for McCaffrey as a fantasy producer. Remember, McCaffrey’s utility was two-fold. I’ll concede to the idea Mason will (already has?) force himself into a timeshare with McCaffrey as a rusher. HC Kyle Shanahan has already noted that Achilles tendonitis is something that “comes and goes.” Regardless, if CMC is on the field, his usage in the passing game wasn’t something Mason took away from this year’s consensus 1.01:
Route Rate: 66.7% (Mason – Week 1), 80.0% (McCaffrey – 2023)
Target Share: 3.4%, 20.0%
Targets per Route Run (TPRR): 4.5%, 20.0%
Yards per Route Run (YPRR): 0.23, 1.38
Similar to De’Von Achane’s Week 1 boxscore (more on him shortly), receiving work can help cover up a lack of rushing production. Last season, McCaffrey actually led the 49ers in red-zone looks (21).
Elsewhere on the 49ers, if you’re looking for WR help in deeper leagues, stash Jauan Jennings.
The recently extended veteran saw 17.2% of Brock Purdy’s pass attempts against the Jets, which would’ve been his second-highest target rate of 2023. With Deebo Samuel shifting into the backfield more often, Jennings’ route rate (54.0%) outpaced most of last year’s games, and he matched Brandon Aiyuk in looks (five each).
In short, I’m holding McCaffrey in leagues where I roster him. San Francisco’s offense was still top 10 in EPA per drive, and McCaffrey’s receiving versatility has been (and still is) his key to being a real-life and fantasy weapon. I’d rather keep him on my bench than let him go to another roster until we know more about his health.
Admittedly, De’Von Achane carried a second-round draft price heading into the season. So, a 23-point outing in PPR leagues was something of a requirement. But think of the three-leg parlay we had to hit to get an RB3 result in Week 1.
First, Achane needed to secure the majority share of the RB carries. In the eight games where he played more than 40.0% of the snaps, the then-rookie only did this twice. Even in the Dolphins’ historic Week 5 outing when they stomped (dolphins don’t stomp, but what was I going to say? They “finned” Denver?), the Broncos he had an even 50-50 split with Raheem Mostert. Nevertheless, a 10-6 touch count in favor of Achane is a positive sign. However, not all touches are created equal.
Of Mostert’s 18 rushing TDs in ’23, six came from inside the five-yard line. The veteran rusher handled 64.3% of the goal-line touches last season. On Sunday, Achane got the one (and only) carry to punch in a score. But wait, there’s more.
A pre-requisite for early-round rushers is passing-game involvement. Over the last three seasons, top-five rushers have averaged a 13.1% target share. Achane’s seven targets (a 19.4% share) were the second-most of his career.
Simply put, we hit the trifecta.
Undoubtedly, Achane’s health should be a cause for short-term concern (he’s a game-time decision for Week 2; Raheem Mostert has been ruled out). Jeff Wilson (24.0% of the carries in Week 1) has some spot-starter appeal against a Bills’ defense that surrendered 83 scrimmage yards to James Conner. However, speedy Jaylen Wright is my priority stash for Thursday and beyond.
Per NextGenStats, Achane averaged the third-fewest rushing yards over expected. Nevertheless, he still finished in the top three in his position. The moment Miami’s offensive line comes together, we’ll see another big day from Achane.
Defense wins games. Defense wins championships.
Wait, that’s not totally right. Well, it’s how it worked for Chicago.
Caleb Williams threw for 93 yards in his debut, but the Bears were still able to pull out the W after three field goals, a blocked punt return for a TD and a pick-six. It’s just how GM Ryan Poles drew it up.
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On the surface, it doesn’t look good. The 2024 1.01 posted the worst completion percentage over expected (CPOE) by any QB of -19.7%. Williams lost the fourth-most yards to sacks (one in epic fashion). However, it’s not all on Chicago’s franchise QB:
Coleman Shelton (Center): 55.1 (PFF Pass Blocking Grade), 22nd (rank amongst all starters)
Ryan Bates (Guard): 65.7, 36th
Tevin Jenkins (Guard): 48.7, 54th
The Bears’ interior line caved under the might of the Titans’ defensive line. As a result, Williams had an average of 2.1 seconds before attempting a pass or the pocket collapsed. It’s a wonder the former Trojan didn’t hit the ground more often, but his 22.2% pressure-to-sack rate was at the league average. Regardless, he was able to show off his pocket maneuverability and scramble when needed.
Keenan Allen and DJ Moore both averaged over two yards of separation, creating viable windows for Williams. And speedster DeAndre Carter may give the Bears the juice they need to generate explosives against the upcoming Texans should Rome Odunze miss time due to his MCL sprain.
In either case, a shift in the game plan (quicker throws, increase in play action) will give Williams the confidence he needs to be Chicago’s QB1.
Two things are working against Sam Darnold after finishing as the QB14 in Week 1.
He played against the Giants.
He’s Sam Darnold.
But just like we can’t overreact to extreme over- or underperformances, we can’t dismiss evidence that doesn’t jibe with our offseason priors. Let’s start with the Darnold part.
We gave the journeyman passer some grace in fantasy circles because we liked his situation in Minnesota. With their starting tackles set to return healthy, the Vikings front, ranked 13th in the preseason by PFF, would give him the protection he needed.
And yet, Darnold saw pressure on 42.3% of his dropbacks (fourth-most in Week 1). However, the Vikings’ triggerman earned the fourth-best grade of any QB under duress. With completions to four different pass-catchers, the same Darnold from 2020, who ranked in the top half of the league in interceptions and sacks when the pocket broke down, wasn’t the guy we saw on Sunday. Darnold maintained his poise and connected with Jalen Nailor for a TD with a defender barreling down on him.
Curious.
Well, OK. But Kevin O’Connell propped up Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall last year (from a fantasy standpoint). Again, the idea was something extrinsic to Darnold would save him. O’Connell would turn the play-action dial up to the max and put the offense on training wheels for his QB. But while the volume was there like in previous years (sixth-highest pass rate over expected in Week 1), there wasn’t an emphasis on adding gimmicks to hide Darnold.
Play Action Rate: 19th
RPO Rate: 21st
Screen Rate: 28th
Darnold’s 7.7 air yards per attempt were the 12th-most of any passer. Plus, he was one of four QBs with a grade of 90.0 or better on deep shots.
Now, with all that said, let’s add in the context of the Giants’ defense.
Despite New York’s push up front, their secondary did them no favors. Justin Jefferson alone averaged 5.1 yards of separation. Nailor had at least three yards on his TD catch. Darnold won’t always have these windows. But, with matchups like Green Bay and Detroit coming, we should consider him a matchup-based starter as the season continues.
