Week 11 wasn’t a perfect week with the sleeper page, no week ever is. Russell Wilson was a significant letdown and Audric Estimé didn’t do much in Denver. But Taysom Hill and Jerry Jeudy smashed their projections, and Will Dissly was a strong play, too. We’ll take that hit rate every time.
Week 12 is probably the most challenging week of the fantasy season. It’s not just the six teams on bye, but the quality of those collective rosters (Bills, Bengals, Falcons, Jets, Jaguars, Saints). You might be scrambling, and hopefully, we can help. Just remember, you’ll probably need fewer points than usual to win your fantasy game this week.
When the Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh, the team’s identity immediately changed. Harbaugh brings a physical, run-focused nature to any roster he coaches, and it’s been part of the success story this year. But don’t mistake the LAC offense for some unit that deflates the ball and only passes out of desperation. The Chargers rank middle of the pack (19th, to be exact) in pass rate over expectation. It’s not the Air Coryell Chargers, sure, but this isn’t a leather-helmet offense, either.
And now the Chargers host Baltimore, a good team that’s struggled against the pass all year. The Ravens have given up the most fantasy points to wideouts this year, and it’s not close.
Johnston’s development in his second year has been a fun story in Los Angeles. He’s scored touchdowns in three straight weeks and he’s coming off a season-best eight targets against Cincinnati. This is the week he graduates from the sleeper page and pushes his roster tag over 50%.
I understand anyone’s reluctance to believe in Will Levis. Most of his key passing metrics are well under the league average. But the Titans have a narrow passing tree, and since the DeAndre Hopkins trade, Westbrook-Ikhine has been a key part of that tree.
Westbrook-Ikhine has touchdowns in five of six games, and while the early part of that run was a series of short touchdowns, he’s also shown he can get downfield (consider last week’s 98-yard catch and run). And it’s important to recognize that Westbrook-Ikhine rarely comes off the field now; he’s logged a 94% snap share since Hopkins was traded. Houston’s secondary also presents a plus matchup for opposing wide receivers.
We saw last week that Anthony Richardson’s return was nothing to fear — the second-year quarterback was excellent in the comeback win over the Jets. And Richardson and Pierce have shown rapport all year — Pierce has a solid 60% catch rate on Richardson targets this year, and his average reception from Richardson is over 20 yards. The Colts are going to take deep shots.
The Lions defense has quietly become one of the best units in the league — it’s not just Ben Johnson’s high-flying offense sparking the Detroit revival. But the Lions are down two critical members of the defense (pass-rushing ace Aidan Hutchinson, star linebacker Alex Anzalone), and Detroit has actually allowed the seventh-most points to opposing wideouts on a weekly basis. Pierce can get home in this matchup.
I’m surprised Dissly hasn’t graduated from this column yet, but it’s coming soon. He’s the TE12 over the past five weeks, including a TE5 showing last week. He’s in the Justin Herbert Circle of Trust. Explosive plays aren’t part of the story here (9.5 YPC), but Dissly has a reliable catch radius.
This pick is obviously predicated on Jake Ferguson’s status — if Ferguson (concussion) can’t go, Schoonmaker steps into a sizable role. We saw Schoonmaker return a TE10 finish in Week 2 when Ferguson couldn’t play, and Schoonmaker collected 10 targets and six catches in an emergency spot last Monday. As a non-starter in Dallas, he’s run plenty of reps with current QB Cooper Rush. Rapport matters.
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It’s been a tricky year for running back sleepers, given the overall health at the position. But you might need some unusual picks for Week 12, so we trudge forward. Johnson has punched in five touchdowns as Chicago’s regular goal-line back, and it’s possible Johnson could need more touches this week with D’Andre Swift nursing a groin injury. Minnesota’s defense is a horrible draw for the Bears, but if you play Johnson this week, you’re gambling on some touchdown deodorant.
Maye’s fantasy profile isn’t dissimilar to what Bo Nix was offering a month or so ago. There’s a rushing backboard here, and Maye’s passing has been better than expected, despite the ordinary supporting cast around him. The Miami defense is a bad draw, no ducking that. But Maye is a solid bet for resourceful running and passing volume, especially when you consider New England is a 7.5-point underdog in this spot — game script will probably help his fantasy bottom line.
I know a lot of fantasy managers will be hesitant to go back here. Javonte Williams was great last week, Estimé was not, and Williams has the starting baton. But Sean Payton has made it clear this is a hot-hand situation, and as poorly as Estimé played last week, he still scooped nine touches by the end of the game. He carries similar equity into a game the Broncos should control, road favorites against the two-win Raiders. Estimé can’t be seen as a fantasy floor play, but you can squint and see some upside.
