Week 1 victory laps?
NOT SO FAST!
Fantasy football managers were ready to toss out the pre-draft takes for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers after underwhelming Week 1 performances but Week 2 brought massive breakout games for the highly touted rookie receivers.
Both receivers went from under 10 fantasy point performances to finishing as the Week 2 WR1 and WR3, prior to the primetime games.
It’s poetic that Harrison Jr. and Nabers had a breakout game in the same week. Both receivers were drafted to be the Cardinals’ and Giants’ unquestioned WR1s and fantasy managers drafted them with a significant gap from the other first-round rookies.
Should we buy into the dramatic Week 2 turnarounds for both receivers?
Harrison Jr. was typically taken in the early second round of fantasy drafts and it was one of the more controversial early round picks. You were either a true believer and drafting him at the turn with confidence, or you were a full fade with an emphatic “no rookie could ever pay off at this ADP.” A shocking Week 1 debut of just one reception on three targets for four yards set off criticism across the industry.
Quarterback Kyler Murray stated it’s not his job to get the ball to Harrison Jr. Concerns around Harrison Jr.’s speed popped up as he was clocked with a max of 16.7 MPH in Week 1. Many fantasy managers immediately jumped to declare drafting him as a misfire and potential bust.
Murray apparently decided it was his job and immediately hit Harrison Jr. for a 23-yard touchdown on the Cardinals’ first drive. The duo topped that touchdown with a 60-yard bomb on the next drive. Harrison Jr. had 130 and two touchdowns in the first quarter alone and could’ve had an even bigger outing if the Rams made this a competitive game.
For every bit of reactionary panic fantasy managers had in Week 1, I’m encouraging an equally dramatic reaction to his Week 2 performance. This looked like the Cardinals’ offense we expected heading into the season. Week 1 was underwhelming across the entire NFL and it’s possible that minimal preseason play created a lack of cohesion in general and the Cardinals were just one of many teams who struggled. The Week 2 connection between Murray and Harrison Jr. was electric but what makes me even more confident regarding the longevity of this production is that it wasn’t exclusive to Harrison Jr. — the entire Cardinals’ offense thrived.
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Marvin Harrison Jr. has arrived; his flight was simply slightly delayed, and we are buying into his production and upside.
In contrast to Harrison Jr., the issue with Nabers is that fantasy managers thought his ceiling would be limited with Daniel Jones at quarterback. The perception was he was being drafted at his ceiling with no chance of WR1 upside. Targets would be consistent but yardage and touchdown opportunities would be limited. His Week 1 performance of five receptions on seven targets for 66 yards served as the perfect confirmation to declare Nabers as doomed for 10-point fantasy performances in 2024.
Concern around Nabers’ Week 1 performance was valid. We expected mediocrity from Jones but the appeal of Nabers was that he would dominate targets and provide value based on volume. Instead of a strong target share for Nabers, it was Wan’Dale Robinson who saw 12 targets. Hyperfocusing on the slot has been a common theme throughout Jones’ career. We chalked it up to the Giants rostering an abnormal amount of slot receivers but after Week 1, the concern remained that the Giants simply can’t produce consistently outside of the slot.
However, an advantageous Week 2 matchup against the Commanders boosted Nabers to an overall WR3 finish, prior to the primetime games, with 10 receptions on 18 targets for 127 yards and one touchdown. Nabers was force-fed a whopping 64% target share — oddly enough, higher than his 56% catch rate.
It was the truly dominating performance we needed to see.
Let me preface this by saying I drafted plenty of Malik Nabers, so I’m very much a pro-Nabers analyst. This level of production is highly encouraging but the Giants don’t face Washington every week. It’s excellent to know that the ceiling exists, but we should keep expectations in check.
Many analysts compared Nabers’ situation to that of Garrett Wilson prior to the arrival of Aaron Rodgers (although it should be noted that we’re still waiting for the Rodgers boost). For comparison, Wilson’s best game of his young career was ironically the second game of his rookie season. Wilson had eight receptions on 14 targets for 102 yards and two touchdowns for 26 fantasy points in half-PPR. That hits a little close to home with Nabers and should be used as a reminder that we aren’t quite out of the woods with Nabers’ quarterback limitation.
To make matters worse, the Giants lost the game and the schedule only gets worse until the Giants face the Commanders again in Week 9. By that time, Jones might not even be the starting quarterback.
The comparison with Wilson still stands and we should still view Nabers as a WR2 with upside in excellent matchups — and hope for a new quarterback in 2025.
