Vice President Kamala Harris has a four-point lead over former President Donald Trump in the final national poll released by Marist on Monday.
The poll of 1,297 likely voters, sponsored by NPR and PBS, saw 51% of respondents supporting Harris while 47% supported Trump. The remaining 2% supported a third-party candidate. The result is outside the poll’s ±3.5 percentage point margin of error.
The poll found that Harris significantly reduced Trump’s lead with men nationally. Trump is still ahead with men in the poll 51%-47%, but the previous iteration of the poll had Trump ahead by 16 points. Harris leads among women in the poll 55%-45%, though her previous lead was 18 points.
Respondents who told Marist that they had already voted made up 55% of the sample, conducted by phone, text or online between Oct. 31 and Nov. 2. Fifty-six percent of those who had already voted preferred Harris, while 53% those who had not yet voted preferred Trump.
“Harris is well-positioned to carry the popular vote for president but needs to traverse a narrow pathway to achieve 270 in the Electoral College,” Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said in the poll’s release. “Former President Trump’s candidacy is being held back by his high negatives among likely voters.”
The Marist poll is the latest poll showing a last second swing of momentum towards Harris, including a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll that had the Vice President ahead in a state that was considered safe for Trump. Other national polls have shown a race that appears to be neck-and-neck.
The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.
When a candidate’s lead is “inside” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to Pew Research Center.
Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Marist/PBS/NPR national poll: Presidential election survey results
