(Bloomberg) — Hedge funds are slashing bets on an oil rally amid a rout. Iron ore is on a downward trend as declines for steel prices in China bite. And biofuels are getting a boost over oil in Brazil.
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Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodity markets as the week gets underway.
Oil
Hedge funds turned the least bullish on crude in records going back more than 13 years on the prospect of swelling supplies and waning demand. Money managers decreased their combined positions on Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil by 99,889 lots to a total net-long position of 139,242 lots, according to ICE Futures Europe and CFTC data for the week ended Sept. 3. Those numbers were released Friday afternoon, and represent the lowest net-long positions based on data stretching back to March 2011. The souring sentiment comes amid a plunge in prices in recent days, driven by worries about demand in the US and China and exacerbated by heavy selling from algorithmic-based funds. Oil rebounded on Monday.
Iron Ore
Iron ore has been the clearest victim among commodities of China’s property crisis. The raw material for steelmaking is down by more than a third this year, and is now trading well below the key $100-a-ton level. Miner BHP Group Ltd. has said that prices should get support in a range between $80 to $100 as high-cost mines are forced to shut, but that widely held view could be tested if China’s post-summer steel recovery disappoints. Futures edged higher Monday after earlier slipping below $90 a ton for the first time since 2022.
Batteries
Battery storage companies will have a large showing at RE+, North America’s largest clean energy conference that kicks off this week in Anaheim, California. Utilities and renewable developers are installing more batteries to help integrate an increasing amount of intermittent solar and wind energy. Batteries can be charged when clean energy is plentiful and cheap and then tapped when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing. The global market for energy storage systems is expected to nearly double by the end of this decade, according to BloombergNEF.
Canola
China has initiated an anti-dumping probe into imports of Canadian rapeseed amid escalating trade tensions after Canada imposed tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, steel and aluminum. Canada is among the world’s top producers and suppliers of the oilseed known in the country as canola. Canada is expected to reclaim No. 1 ranking for production for the 2024/25 marketing year, ending the European Union’s three-year streak as top producer, according to US Department of Agriculture forecasts. Canada is estimated to account for almost 23% of global output. More than 90% of China’s rapeseed imports last year were from Canada. Canola futures rose on Monday.
Biofuels
New legislation in Brazil is set to support farmers by pushing additional demand toward biofuels — and away from fossil fuels produced by state-controlled oil giant Petroleo Brasileiro SA. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s government creates broader mandates for ethanol and biodiesel, reinforcing Brazil’s strategy of relying on its bountiful crops to address the energy transition. Brazil is already a huge biofuels’ consumer, producing flexible-fuel cars that can run on ethanol alone.
–With assistance from Mariana Durao, Doug Alexander and Martin Ritchie.
(Adds Monday market moves for oil, iron ore and canola.)
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