Ten weeks down. The postseason picture is starting to come into form and the season has officially reached crunch time for the teams that didn’t perform well to start. It’s over for some teams, but one team with very few wins still has a small heartbeat after a big victory this week and a recent turn of improved health.
The Dolphins’ season gained a quick breath of air this week following their Monday night win over the Los Angeles Rams. With the rest of the league largely struggling, the Dolphins have a chance to save their season if they can get hot right this very second. At 3-6, every game is essential to get into the playoffs, but if they play their cards right they can at least compete for it.
The bones of a playoff roster are still very much there, but the Dolphins lost too many games early in the season while Tua Tagovailoa was out with a concussion. Since his return, they’ve looked more like the team that they wanted to be at the start of the season.
Since Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8, the Dolphins are back to being a functional team. On a per-play basis they’ve been just about a top-five offense in three games since Tagovailoa resumed his duties as the starting quarterback. Miami’s defense hasn’t been as consistent as it was with Tagovailoa out, but the group played a huge role in battering the Rams and getting the Dolphins a huge win on the national stage. As a whole, this team is certainly not as bad as its record suggests.
What is giving the Dolphins a chance is the bottom of the AFC being a dumpster fire. Miami’s 3-6 record has it in the 10th seed. That is just two games out from the seventh seed and playoff position, which is currently owned by the Broncos (5-5). Sandwiched in between them are the Colts (4-6) and Bengals (4-6). The Bengals are always a threat to go on a run and reach the playoffs based on their offensive firepower. The Colts not so much, although Indianapolis defeated Miami in Week 7.
The Dolphins’ remaining schedule is a mixed bag. They have games against the Raiders, Patriots, Jets and Browns. They also have to play the Packers, 49ers and Texans. It’s going to be difficult, but their recent games against the Bills and Rams suggest that this team has a chance to win in every one of those games. The odds might be slim, but possible.
It’s a tough pill to swallow that they’re in this big of a hole, but the Dolphins can at least build up momentum for 2025 if they can’t make the playoffs this season. Maybe a top draft pick is what they need to push them over the top for next season.
The NFC has been bereft of true contenders to the Lions’ ascendancy toward the throne this season, but there may be another team entering the arena, establishing itself as contenders in the later portions of the season. As they get healthier and start to get ready for the home stretch, the Eagles look like one of the best all-around teams in the NFL that has the potential to make some noise in the postseason.
Their offense is going to draw the most acclaim due to the multiple number of star players they have on that side of the ball, but the Eagles’ improved defense is a big part of this equation as well.
They haven’t exactly played the Greatest Show on Turf every week, but over the past five weeks, in which the Eagles are 5-0, Philadelphia has the best defense in football. Yards per play, points per drive, success rate, sack rate — you name it, they are probably first or close to first. Some of that is buoyed by playing the Giants, Browns and Dak-less Cowboys, but they smothered the Bengals and held them to 17 points in a blowout victory. Down to down, drive to drive, this defense is playing lights out and getting some strong contributions from young players.
Three players who are still on their rookie deals — Jalen Carter, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean — have helped get this defense move in the right direction again. As the Eagles undergo a bit of a facelift on defense from the previous era of the team, these three guys are going to be immensely important and are driving a good amount of their success recently. Other young players like Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean are starting to come into their own as well. Year 1 under coordinator Vic Fangio has been a massive success in terms of being able to tie together some of the Eagles’ highly drafted defensive players.
The offense speaks for itself. As long as Philly’s stars are healthy, the unit will produce. A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith are too good to go along with Jalen Hurts under center. The offensive line is getting healthier as well, with star left tackle Jordan Mailata set to return from injury. They’re hitting cylinders at the right time and have a chance to take a strong lead on the NFC East with a win on Thursday night against the Commanders (7-3).
The Eagles have been a circus when it comes to their coaching staff, but Fangio and the overall level of talent sets the floor too high. Barring a meltdown prior to the playoffs, they have a chance to go on a run. This team is certainly better than last year’s team that fell to the Buccaneers in the wild-card round.
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The Bears got trounced again, except this time it was by one of the worst teams in the league. After losing 19-3 to the Patriots and failing to score a touchdown for the second straight week, the Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who was in his first year with the team. The vibes are a mess as effort is being questioned and the performance and development of quarterback Caleb Williams is a major discussion point around the league. The season is falling apart, change is on the way and … they’re only 4-5? As bad as the Bears have been recently, their season certainly isn’t over even though their behavior on and off the field are moving in that direction.
Chicago is currently in the ninth seed for the NFC playoff race, only two games out from the seventh seed Packers. That’s certainly an uphill battle, but the Bears haven’t played any intra-division games yet and still can control their odds of making a wild-card spot. Changes were needed on offense for sure, but if the Bears can get motivated and start acting like a professional team again, they can actually compete and get back in the mix.
The good news for the Bears is that their defense is still a top-quality unit. Chicago ranks fifth in points per drive, third in expected points added per play, first in expected points added per dropback and sixth in turnover percentage. By all measures, this is still one of the best defenses in the league (outside of that time they let the Cardinals run for a 53-yard touchdown in the waning seconds of the first half in Week 9). The Bears aren’t lifeless, even if the other side of the ball is cratering.
There’s no need to soften this: the Bears’ offense is terrible. Outside of not turning the ball over, they don’t really do anything well and the whole operation is sloppy. Williams is holding onto the ball too long and not showing off his ridiculous arm talent enough. The wide receivers aren’t getting any separation and the offensive line has been incredibly injured. There isn’t a whole lot of good happening here and the recent culmination of it ended with Waldron losing his job. This side of the ball is likely to be bad for the rest of the season. Perhaps better coordination can allow Chicago to improve to being a below average offense instead of one of the three worst in the league.
A 4-5 team with the mannerisms of a 1-8 team is no good. Things haven’t quite been the same since the Bears’ Hail Mary gaffe against the Commanders, but that’s no reason to be slogging through their recent games. Get it together, Bears. The season’s not over because things have gotten rough.
The MVP race has been a one-man show up to this point. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is still the frontrunner considering he’s having one of the greatest seasons in NFL history, but the schedule is about to enter crunch time and every candidate is about to be put underneath a microscope. Remember last season, the MVP race was tightly contested until the final few weeks when the Cowboys and 49ers had some sloppy games, clearing the way for Jackson to win his second MVP. With a little help from BetMGM, here are the real MVP contenders to keep an eye on for the rest of the season.
Lamar Jackson (+110): According to TruMedia, Jackson has generated 122.7 expected points on dropbacks. Jayden Daniels is in second place with 70.8. The distance between Jackson and Daniels is the same distance between Daniels and Russell Wilson, who ranks 14th. This is Jackson’s award to lose.
Josh Allen (+350): Allen is playing at an MVP level in a reload year for the Bills and if they can finish the season 14-3 or around that range, he’ll have voters clamoring for him as well.
Patrick Mahomes (+700): Mahomes hasn’t had the same statistical dominance that he has had in the past, but the Chiefs are 9-0 and would have no shot of being undefeated if not for Mahomes.
Jalen Hurts (+1300): The Eagles are winning and Hurts is going to continue to put up numbers. He’ll be a factor in this race toward the end as long as the Eagles keep winning.
Jared Goff (+2000): The Lions haven’t necessarily been winning because of Goff, but a quarterback putting up numbers on an elite team is always going to get MVP attention. But he needs to start playing better.
