The three-ball has become arguably the staple of scoring in the NBA — so we figured we’d take some shots from way downtown, too. Here, fantasy basketball analyst Dan Titus will break down three things fantasy managers need to know each week. Or, he’ll break down multiple three-point pieces of advice, analysis and more — it just depends on how open he is From Deep.
Today, I’m dividing the 2024 rookie class into three tiers based on their success to date and near-term outlooks.
In my last rookie tiers column, Missi was in Tier 2; now, he’s in the No. 1 spot.
Missi leads all rookies in fantasy points, is second in fantasy points per game and fifth in 9-cat rankings among first-year players. With Zach Edey and Donovan Clingan injured, Missi possesses the highest upside for a big who can get an efficient double-double with stocks. He has minimal competition for minutes, and he’s gradually improving offensively. Missi is coming off his best game of the year, a 23-point, 12-rebound performance with two stocks — and there’s going to be plenty more on the way with the Pelicans in shambles. He’s still available in 67% of leagues, so pick him up if he’s on your waiver wire.
From unlisted to the top of the charts, Jared McCain has been the most impactful rookie over the last month. You might be asking, “Titus, how did you not have the current odds-on favorite for Rookie of the Year?”
Well, my last rookie report was on November 7, seven games into the season, when McCain was averaging 6.7 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 0.4 3s with 46/25/100 shooting splits in just 11 minutes per night. Then, Nick Nurse woke up and started playing the former Dukie 30 minutes a night.
The results speak for themselves.
Since November 8: 21.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 3.3 3s with 47/40/85 shooting splits in 33.5 minutes per night.
McCain leads all rookies in scoring while averaging over 30 fantasy points per game in the past 30 days. Although he ranks fourth among rookies in 9-cat, he’s playing a pivotal role for a struggling Sixers squad whose stars can’t stay healthy.
Sarr’s shot profile continues to hamper his fantasy value, but as long as he’s rebounding and getting stocks, he’s worth holding onto. I view Sarr as a long-term play because I doubt we’ll see Jonas Valančiūnas or Kyle Kuzma on the roster after the trade deadline. That should leave a considerable amount of time for Sarr to work on better shot selection and his efficiency. He still leads all rookies in fantasy points per game, has the second-most total fantasy points and is the third-highest-ranked rookie in 9-cat leagues this season.
Edey’s injured but is ramping up with the Grizzlies G-League affiliate. He should slot back into the starting center spot when he returns to the lineup. In 14 games, Edey ranks third among rookies in fantasy points per game and is the second-highest-ranked rookie in 9-cat leagues behind Donovan Clingan (more on him shortly). We have yet to really see him be the shot-blocker we know he can be, too.
Bub moved down a tier because, while enjoying a great start to his rookie campaign, the Wizards put him on ice in favor of Malcolm Brogdon. The decision makes sense if the Wizards intend to build up Brogdon’s trade value, but fantasy managers were dealt a bad hand with Bub’s role diminishing to a bench capacity. Injuries are common with Brogdon, so Carrington could reemerge in the short term after Brogdon sustained another knee injury (although Brogdon is questionable for Thursday).
In 12 starts, Carrington averaged 10.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.5 3s and 1.5 stocks in 31 minutes of action. He’s currently sixth among rookies in 9-cat ranks.
Risacher is here to stay. De’Andre Hunter got injured, opening the door for Risacher to earn starter’s minutes. Even after Hunter returned, he’s played well enough to hold onto the job.
His stocks have been a surprise, as he’s racked up 1.8 stocks per game to match his encouraging 21% usage rate. His points will likely stay in the 11-13 range with a handful of rebounds and a couple of assists. He’s been lights out from the corners and mid-range, so I expect further developments in efficiency with more reps and experience.
It’s been a big month for Castle, thus him moving up a tier. He started the previous 14 games for the Spurs and his production increased with the additional minutes. Over that span, he’s posted 14.3 points, 4.4 dimes and 2.5 boards per game along with 1.6 3s and 1.3 stocks. The lack of efficiency has been his biggest flaw, but the scoring and 21% usage are encouraging for his outlook.
Devin Vassell will join the starting lineup at some point, but Castle’s size allows him to play forward, too. The Spurs are 8-6 with him in the starting unit, and his physicality and defense are necessary components of their recent success.
Did you see his 19-rebound performance? How about the eight-block game? Yes, he’s out for multiple weeks with an MCL sprain, but those spike performances were intriguing enough to stash Clingan (if you can afford to) while he’s on the shelf.
While Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams were in and out of the lineup during Clingan’s reign, the Blazers aren’t good, so taking the long-term view with Clingan is important. He can have a Walker Kessler-like impact later this season simply off his upside in blocks and rebounding.
Clingan leads all rookies in blocks and is the top-ranked rookie in 9-cat leagues despite missing his last five games. He moved up a tier from my previous report.
He’s been labeled one of the draft’s steals, and he’s been a decent streamer since being inserted into the Lakers’ starting lineup. However, the Lakers offense has been terrible lately, which has hampered Knecht’s production. He’s not someone you need to hold in 10-12 team leagues, but keep him on your watchlist. He’s proven to be one of the Lakers’ top shooters and floor spacers, even as a rookie.
I’m on the fence about Wells because he’s earned his minutes and is taking full advantage of them. He’s on a two-way deal, so unless the Grizzlies convert him to a full contract, his games will be capped at 50, and he’s already played in 22.
That said, the man just won the Western Conference Rookie of the Month.
He’s benefitting from some injuries on the wing, but he’s been an effective scorer near the rim, in the paint and punishing defenses on the perimeter. He’s close to a top-100 player over the past two weeks. However, Wells’ defense leaves much to be desired and I don’t trust that he can preserve his role once more prominent players get healthy.
Kyle Kuzma is out with a rib injury and Corey Kispert left the last game with an ankle sprain, so if George can overcome his ankle woes, he could see some streaming appeal yet again. He’s put up solid numbers as a starter this year, averaging 12.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.0 steals across 31.7 minutes. In time, George will start at SG or SF for the rebuilding Wizards.
Buzelis had a small coming-out party in Monday’s win over the Nets, scoring 20 points (7-10 FG, 4-5 3PT, 2-2 FT) with five boards, one assist and two blocks. Fantasy managers would love to see more of this, but unfortunately, he’s behind too many guys. Unless a trade or injury happens, he won’t see enough consistent minutes to be added to redraft leagues.
We haven’t seen enough yet. Jalen Green hasn’t missed a game and Amen Thompson got the lone start at point guard in Fred VanVleet’s absence this season. Like Buzelis, it’ll take a trade or injury for us to see Sheppard consistently enough to be picked up in redraft leagues.
