Happy Fourth of July! It’s the most American holiday of them all, so of course it includes the national pastime of baseball. And it’s only fitting that the first pitch of MLB’s Independence Day slate takes place in the nation’s capital with the Nationals hosting the Mets (11:05 a.m. ET, Fubo).
The Sporting News has you covered with a full betting prediction for this Fourth of July tilt, including matchup details, final score prediction, best bets, top player props, and more. It’s as plentiful an offering as Miki Sudo should get at the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest!
Let’s get right to our betting preview for Nats vs. Mets, and dole out our favorite picks for this D.C. duel. Good luck, and have a happy and healthy holiday with your family and friends!
| Team | Starting pitcher | ML | RL | O/U |
| Mets @ | J. Quintana (3-5, 4.57 ERA) | -115 | -1.5 (+140) | O9 (-110) |
| Nationals | J. Irvin (6-6, 3.03 ERA) | -105 | +1.5 (-166) |
U9 (-110) |
It’s only fitting that the Nationals are favored — at least slightly — ahead of their Independence Day tilt with the Mets. Irvin has fared much better than Quintana in just about every stat category, but Washington has looked way better offensively. Both teams have below-average bullpens, ranking among the bottom 10 teams in reliever ERA.
If the Mets’ run line was +1.5, it might be worth a bet as New York has gone 15-9 on the run line as a road underdog. However, it’s tough to side with the Metropolitans in D.C. on the nation’s birthday — especially after looking at Jose Quintana’s stats away from Citi Field.
Quintana has a 3.59 ERA and 1.28 WHIP at home, but a 5.63 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road. Multiple Nationals hitters have also fared well against the veteran southpaw throughout their careers, including Senzel who has seven hits in 18 head-to-head meetings.
Then there’s Irvin, who has been on a spectacular run and arguably deserves a spot on the NL All-Star team. The second-year righty has allowed two runs or fewer across six innings in a whopping seven of his past eight starts. The Nats, not coincidentally, have won five of the past six games Irvin has started.
Washington has been scuffling a bit as of late, losing eight of its past 10 games. But the offense hasn’t been the problem more so than starting pitching and the bullpen. The Nats have scored 56 runs over their past 11 games (5.09 per game), which would be more than enough run support for Irvin at home today. Bet the Nationals to take care of business in the nation’s capital on America’s birthday.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Nationals 5, Mets 4 — Washington bags the win (-105) and Irvin records the win for the Nats (+175).
