No. 2 Ohio State is one win away from a rematch with No. 1 Oregon.
The Buckeyes capitalized on poor special teams play from Indiana on the way to 31 straight points in a 38-15 win over the No. 5 Hoosiers.
The teams were tied 7-7 late in the second quarter as Indiana set up to punt the ball back to Ohio State. However, Indiana punter James Evans dropped the snap and was tackled at his own 7-yard line.
Three plays later, TreVeyon Henderson gave Ohio State a 14-7 lead.
The Hoosiers got the ball to start the third quarter but gained just two yards and went three-and-out. Evans caught the snap cleanly this time and got the punt off, but safety Caleb Downs caught the ball off a hop and ran 79 yards for a two-possession lead.
Downs’ TD was the dagger to Indiana’s undefeated season and extinguished any hopes of an upset. The Hoosiers again failed to get a first down on their next drive and Ohio State quickly extended the lead to three touchdowns on its next possession.
Indiana was the better team at the start. After forcing an Ohio State punt to begin the game, Indiana marched down the field to take a 7-0 lead before stopping Ohio State on fourth down deep in the red zone.
But the Hoosiers soon unraveled as Ohio State started bringing regular pressure on QB Kurtis Rourke. Indiana was stymied by Michigan’s defensive line in the second half two weeks ago, and once Ohio State’s defense took over, the Indiana offense couldn’t make up for the special teams problems.
Rourke was sacked five times and Indiana had just 151 total yards. Rourke was just 8-of-18 passing for 67 yards for the entire game after throwing for 32 yards on two completions during Indiana’s first possession.
The Buckeyes’ only loss of the season came on Oct. 12 in a 32-31 loss to the undefeated Ducks. A win over Michigan in Week 14 would put Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game against Oregon, who clinched a spot a week ago with a win at Wisconsin.
Indiana, meanwhile, is still alive for the Big Ten title. But it needs some help from Ohio State and Penn State’s remaining two opponents. If Ohio State loses to Michigan and Penn State and Indiana finish the season at 8-1 in the Big Ten, Penn State will win the tiebreaker based on the winning percentage of the teams’ conference opponents. Indiana’s only path to the title game involves both Ohio State and Penn State finishing the season with two conference losses.
The big question after Week 13 will be where the committee puts the Hoosiers in the next set of rankings on Tuesday. Indiana has been ranked behind at least three one-loss teams so far. How many two-loss teams will jump ahead of IU now that it’s 10-1?
The best explanation for why Indiana wasn’t at No. 2 entering Week 13 was the team’s schedule. Washington (6-5) was the only Indiana opponent to have a winning record through the first 12 weeks of the season, and the Hoosiers’ three non-conference opponents were Florida International, FCS-level Western Illinois and Charlotte.
The Hoosiers had been dominant against those opponents, however. Indiana entered the game outscoring teams by an average margin of 44-14 and its five-point win over Michigan was the only win within 14 points all season.
Just how much will the way Indiana lost sour the committee on the Hoosiers? We expect Indiana to be ranked somewhere in the vicinity of No. 10 depending on how the committee values the morass of two-loss teams in the SEC.
An 11-1 record with a big win over Purdue next week should be plenty for Indiana to make the playoff, especially considering the number of two-loss teams that will make the postseason. But the committee has shown it’s prone to wild swings and flexible logic. Where Indiana is ranked on Tuesday will make it a lot easier to assess how comfortable Indiana fans should feel about their team’s postseason chances.
