The Triple Crown races are over, and the race for the three-year-old championship is still completely wide open. The race should be an exciting one, with Triple Crown race winners Mystik Dan, Seize the Grey, and Dornoch facing familiar foes like Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Mindframe, along with a number of talented competitors.
In some years, a dominant horse has nearly wrapped up the three-year-old championship by the time the Belmont Stakes is done. Most years, things are narrowed down to a small number of strong contenders. And then there are years like 2024—as of mid-July, any three-year-old colt in America still has a shot at the championship.
If you think that’s hyperbole, consider 2016, when Arrogate didn’t run in a stakes race until the Travers in August, and still earned the championship with two dominant wins, despite Exaggerator having won three Grade 1 races (including the Preakness). This year, no three-year-old has yet won two Grade 1 races.
The Haskell Stakes on July 20 will be the next major test for some of the top three-year-old colts, and the field looks loaded with possible starters including Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, Preakness winner Seize the Grey, Derby favorite Fierceness, and Belmont runner-up Mindframe.
Several of those horses could opt instead to run in the Jim Dandy Stakes on July 27, where they may have to face Sierra Leone, whose tendency to find trouble in his races may have cost him wins in both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes.
Fans are also eagerly waiting to see where a number of brilliant, but lightly raced horses make their next starts. Unmatched Wisdom was a dominant winner in both of his starts (against weak competition). Nysos appeared to be the top three-year-old prior to missing time due to health concerns. Muth was the early favorite for the Preakness until he missed training time. And Batten Down emerged as a possible star with his most recent win (in the Ohio Derby).
Those two races should set the table for key races over the final three months of the racing season, including the Travers, the Pennsylvania Derby, and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (where the three-year-olds will need to contend with older, more experienced racehorses).
And in an added challenge for 2024’s three-year-olds, they may have to compete with unbeaten star filly Thorpedo Anna, whose connections could opt to run her against colts in order to boost her credentials for the Horse of the Year award.
While there is no way to bet on who will win the three-year-old championship, handicapping this ‘race’ is still an intriguing challenge. Our own Johnny Avello has taken a shot at it and has the theoretical odds* as:
*Analysts’ views/strategies are their own and do not reflect the views of DraftKings. They may also deploy different plays/strategies than what they advise.
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Lines and odds subject to change.
