This is it, my fellow fantasy football heads — the first Thursday Night Football game of the fantasy playoffs If you made the dance, congratulations; if not, it’s time to do some studying for next season.
Thankfully, the first game of this all-important week is shaping up to be a doozy. Both the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers have life in the NFC playoff race, but both are one loss away from things going sideways. With all the fantasy-relevant names on both sides, hopefully we get a barnburner.
Let’s go to the tale of the tape.
Deebo Samuel Sr.
Yes, I said it. Just give him more carries and designed rushes. Let’s let Isaac Guerendo completely heal (he reportedly intends to play tonight) and stop trying to make Patrick Taylor Jr. happen. The people yearn for more Samuel rush attempts!
See that 92 up there in the player card? That’s rush yards. That’s right, Samuel only has 92 rush yards this season, 11 games played — not to mention, just one rushing TD.
For reference, he rushed for 365 yards and eight touchdowns in 2021, when he finished as the overall WR2 in fantasy.
What gives? Is Deebo hurt? Are the 49ers trying to force him into a more traditional WR role?
I don’t get it. The moment both CMC and Elijah Mitchell went down, I expected those cheat-code, exotic rushing packages for Deebo to be unleashed. I was completely and utterly wrong.
Samuel recently posted on social media about his frustrations over not getting the ball more (he’s deleted it since). So maybe we see a squeaky-wheel game tonight. Or maybe we get his fifth straight game under five fantasy points.
With Guerendo looking like he’ll suit up tonight (and looking great as the starter last week) Samuel is more of a flex option for me this week than an auto-start. But I will be watching him closely tonight to see if his upside is reached via his dual-threat ability with Guerendo potentially not seeing a full workload playing at less than 100 percent. And hey, at least Samuel’s quarterback is on his side.
And for those of you debating about starting Guerendo, here’s Andy Behrens’ take from today’s Get to the Points newsletter:
Guerendo possesses the sort of speed, explosiveness and big-play ability that we simply haven’t seen from Patrick Taylor Jr., the 49ers’ Plan E running back.
Tonight’s matchup certainly isn’t a stay-away spot, so you can fire up Guerendo wherever you have him. The Rams have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game this season and 4.7 YPC. Earlier this year (two running backs ago), the Niners ran for 137 yards vs. Los Angeles.
Grabbing wide receivers off the waiver wire during the fantasy football season is usually a matter of streaming. Matchup-based additions are pretty common; so rarely do we pick up a wide receiver who ends up becoming an every-week start in fantasy lineups, especially not when that receiver isn’t a rookie.
And yet, here we are, with Jauan Jennings being one of the waiver wire heroes of 2024.
Jennings wasn’t drafted in most leagues, but he’s currently WR18 in half-PPR (WR14 in PPG).
How did we get here? Well, a perfect storm of things had to happen for Jennings to receive this opportunity. Brandon Aiyuk being lost for the season definitely played a role, as well as the injuries to the 49ers backfield, and minor injuries suffered in-season by the likes of Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle. That’s been a common theme throughout Jennings’ career; when his number is called, he delivers.
Jennings was always considered a distant fourth in the 49ers’ offensive weapon hierarchy, but that isn’t to say he doesn’t have the talent to be higher on that list. We’re seeing it now, after all. Jennings hasn’t scored under 6 fantasy points since Week 6, and he hasn’t gotten less than 5 targets since Week 5. He’s evolved from just a third-down chain-mover and random red-zone threat.
He IS the 49ers’ WR1 right now.
Lest we forget, Jennings stepped up in the face of injury back in Week 3 to deliver a truly monstrous 41-point outing — those are Ja’Marr Chase numbers.
His opponent back in Week 5? These very same Rams.
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I highly doubt Sean McVay has forgotten Jennings’ 11-175-3 blow-up against his team, but even if extra defensive attention is placed on him, Jennings is good enough to produce, especially since Kyle Shanahan has been scheming him the ball. Start Jennings with full confidence tonight.
Much has been made about Puka Nacua’s recent production — as it should be. Nacua has looked like a machine, producing highlight-reel catches and stats as well. It might not be said by the Los Angeles Rams team itself, but to any observer watching critically, it’s become clear: Puka Nacua is the Rams’ WR1 now, not Cooper Kupp.
But maybe that’s not a bad thing.
Sure, Nacua’s been getting all the headlines, but outside of a crappy outing against the Saints in Week 13, Kupp has been performing as a high-class WR2 with WR1 upside. He had a high mark of 25.60 fantasy points in Week 11, his highest total of the season, and since Week 8 he’s scored 10+ fantasy points in every game except that Saints matchup (for what it’s worth, that Saints game was more about the Rams’ run game and defense dominating their opponent).
Sure, maybe Kupp’s not inhaling targets like he did in the past, with Nacua around, but it’s not like he’s been left out to dry; during that aforementioned stretch of games, Kupp’s averaged 10.8 targets per game, in comparison to Nacua’s 10.14. McVay is scheming touches to both of his elite wideouts, moving them around the formation. And hey, maybe it’s not the worst thing in the world for Nacua to demand extra defensive attention; causing more open lanes for Kupp.
You would have to be incredibly, miraculously deep at wideout to even consider benching Kupp in what is essentially a must-win game for both teams.
