WNBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Lynx Team Total Over 86.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
This might be an early start, but the Lynx could probably sleepwalk through a good portion of this game and still put up a big number on Dallas. It seems pretty obvious that the Wings have quit on the season, and the most glaring result has been on defense. The past 10 games they’ve allowed the opposing team to go 7-3 over this total while giving up 89.9 PPG. Included in that stretch were two games against the Lynx, who put up 87 and 90 points. Fresh off their Commissioner’s Cup win and absolutely rolling as a team, I think the Lynx get whatever they want offensively today.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Fever/Seattle Storm Over 168.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video
Speaking of teams who can’t stop anything, only the Fever are giving up more points per game than the awful Dallas defense. I wish the Storm were more consistent offensively as they can fall into ridiculous droughts. But they’re very up-tempo with the most shot attempts per game in the league, so that should spell points like it did in the first meeting when Seattle dropped 103 on the Fever. Caitlin Clark and this Indiana team have started to show their potential on offense lately though, averaging 89.6 PPG their past 4 games. Their past 10 games are also 7-3 over tonight’s total and they’re 14-4 to the over this season, so look for another high-scoring game here.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins Team Total Over 4.5 (+105; Odds via Caesars): 2:40 PM CT on MLB Network
With David Festa making his major league debut, the Twins get installed as underdogs today for the first time in 15 games. But that just ends up creating a plus-juice price on their team over, and I’m jumping in. It’s a great spot against Jordan Montgomery, as the Twins now lead MLB in batting average and are 3rd in wOBA against lefties. Montgomery has also struggled at home this season, posting a 6.55 ERA , 1.79 WHIP, and .324 opponent on-base average. Minnesota is 11-4 over this total while averaging 6.5 runs per game in those past 15 games I mentioned, and I see another here.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Jordan Montgomery Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Opposing teams have gone over this total against Montgomery in 8 of his 12 starts this season. They’ve also gone over it in 5 of his 7 home starts, so against the team with the best average against lefthanded pitching, I’ll take a shot on the over again today.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Carlos Santana Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145; Odds via DraftKings)
This price is really attractive given that Santana has faced Jordan Montgomery 9 times, and he has 3 doubles and a home run in those at-bats. That works out to a .444 average and 1.556 OPS, plus he’s hitting lefties in general 60 points better this season, so I like him to get over this prop at the juicy return.
MLB (0.25 Unit) NY Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings ML (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 6:07 PM CT on YES
This is a tough situational spot for the Yankees and I think it could cause problems for them early on tonight. They didn’t get out of New York until very late due to a rain delay and then a long game. Toronto was also impacted by rain, but bailed out of Boston much earlier. I also think it’s a pitching advantage for Toronto tonight as Carlos Rodon comes into this game off consecutive rough starts. They’ll have to contend with the home version of Jose Berrios who is always far better, and I think it results in an early lead for the Jays in this one.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2352-2163 ATS (+93.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
