MLB (0.75 Unit) San Diego Padres Team Total Over 4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on ARID
The Diamondbacks will start Slade Cecconi again tonight, a pitcher with mind-boggling home/road splits. The Arizona righty has a 3.35 ERA on the road but an 11.65 ERA at home, so what kind of pitcher is he? I have to believe he’s somewhere in between, and that his road luck will eventually dry up. It would make sense to happen in San Diego against the Padres, who he’s faced twice already this season and compiled a 9.35 ERA and .333 opponent on-base average.
As a righty, he will have to contend with a Padres offense that has the best batting average against righthanders in baseball, plus a top-5 mark in scoring and most advanced metrics, with Fernando Tatis also likely returning tonight. Strange things like Cecconi’s home/road splits always even out in the long run with baseball, so I’m jumping on this strong offense to be the one that starts the process.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Sky @ Seattle Storm -9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ION
Much like my principle with the Lynx, if the Storm are laying single digits at home it might as well be an automatic bet on them. Seattle got off to a slow start this season, but they’ve really picked it up and a big reason has been dominance at home. The Storm lost their first game of the season, a home game against Minnesota, then logged a 2-point win over Indiana in their next home game.
Since then it’s been nothing but double-digit victories, 7 straight to be exact, with an average margin of 19.1 points. While the Sky have been better in recent games, they just haven’t been competitive against the upper echelon teams in the WNBA, which is what Seattle is. The Storm are at full strength and have figured out their overhauled roster, so look for them to roll another mediocre opponent at home tonight.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2366-2177 ATS (+92.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
