MLB (1 Unit) Oakland A’s/Boston Red Sox Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on NESN
Yesterday’s 21-run slugfest is set to be repeated today because so many of the same factors exist in this game. You have an Oakland starter in JP Sears who struggles on the road, owning a 4.82 ERA with several blowup games. There’s once again a Red Sox starter who struggles in Boston, as Nick Pivetta has a 5.52 ERA at Fenway, and the A’s showed last night they can hit this Boston staff. Plus, the weather is still very much in favor of runs, with warm temperatures and a big wind blowing straight at the Green Monster. We’re not likely to see 21 runs again, but I’d gladly take half that and I think we get it here.
MLB (1 Unit) Washington Nationals/NY Mets Over 9 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on MASN
Speaking of excellent conditions for scoring, Citi Field tonight is right up there with Fenway tonight, and there are vulnerable pitchers going in this one too. Winds should be blowing out to left-center at nearly 20 miles an hour tonight, which is the kind of conditions that usually cause totals to jump into double digits.
So this number presents clear value from that standpoint, and I think the pitching will allow the total to be cleared easily. When Patrick Corbin pitches, particularly on the road with his .323 opponent on-base average, runs are usually coming. But it’s Luis Severino who might allow the most damage, as he’s been rocked in 3 of his past 4 starts. Both of these offenses are sneaky-good and in their vastly preferred righty/lefty split tonight, so look for this moderate total to look low by game’s end.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on ESPN+
Slade Cecconi showed in his last start at San Diego that he’s not just prone to giving up a ton of runs at home, but him being back at Chase Field tonight has me following his usual trend. The Arizona righty has a comical 11.65 ERA and .360 opponent on-base average in home games this season, which has come in a smaller sample size but it’s growing.
In all of Cecconi’s home starts the visiting team has scored at least 6 runs, and now he has to contend with the Atlanta lineup. The Braves haven’t been themselves this season, but have cleared this total in 5 straight and I think they keep that streak going against a bad pitcher tonight.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2372-2184 ATS (+90.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
