Before the Toronto police board voted to approve a $46.2-million budget increase request for next year, a police director explained that case closure rates have dropped for most crimes since 2015.

“That’s because investigations take time and effort and resources,” Toronto police director of information management, Ian Williams told the board earlier this month.

But while police say lower closure rates are one reason why they need increased funding, experts are conflicted about whether they’re an accurate measure of police achievement — and whether the figures should be used to justify more resources.

“They put all sorts of stuff in the board meeting asking for more money,” said John Sewell, coordinator for the Toronto Police Accountability Coalition and former city mayor.

“Closure rates don’t mean anything useful in terms of telling us what the police are doing,” he said.

‘Among the lowest of case closure rates’ in Canada

The need to close more cases and give victims closure was also cited in this year’s budget decision, with a briefing to the city’s budget committee noting the service has “among lowest of case closure rates for Canadian police services.”

City council is set to vote on next year’s police budget after the new year.

Shelley Carroll, the city’s budget chief, was not available for an interview. Mayor Olivia Chow and Ann Morgan, chair of the Toronto Police Board, deferred to Toronto police.

The definition of case closures can vary across units and involve multiple factors, said Toronto police spokesperson Nadine Ramadan. A case can be closed when:

• An accused is charged.

• Charges have been dropped or don’t make it to trial.

• An accused takes their own life.

• An accused is involved in separate incidents that are tried as one case.

• An accused is out of the country and can’t be returned.

• The case turns out not to be a criminal matter.

• A case was resolved without involving criminal charges, for example when an accused is offered community service or counselling to have their charge withdrawn.

Ramadan said the volume of reported incidents, the finite number of investigators, and time it takes to close cases are all factors behind the lower rates. She said closures are just one way to measure progress and more resources for staffing could increase the likelihood of finding offenders and closing cases.

“What I’d like to know is how many charges are laid and how many of those charges actually proceed to a trial in court,” Sewell said.

While it’s “dangerous” to consider case closures as a measurement of productivity, they can show the resources police need, says Donna Kellway, president of the Ontario Crown Attorneys’ Association.

“If you’ve got the same amount of resources and increased calls coming in, then it only makes sense that your case closure rates would be lower,” she said.

Breaking down the numbers

While case closure rates rose by 28 per cent for homicides from 2015 to 2023, they were down for nine out of 12 other types of incidents over the same time period, including sexual violation (down 31 per cent), theft over (down 43 per cent) fraud (down 83 per cent), traffic fatalities (down 19 per cent) and assault (down 16 per cent).

Closure rates improve over time because of how long it can take information to come to light, Williams told the police board. “But they also improve of course due to resourcing and the ability to have dedicated, specialized investigation staff to support those.”

Will hiring more police officers help?

As part of their reasons to request an increased budget, Toronto police stressed their multi-year hiring plan and the need to address rising demands.

From 2015 to 2023, Toronto police data shows the service saw a 6.9 per cent decrease in staffing while the city’s population grew by more than 12 per cent, according to Statistics Canada census data. 

Meanwhile, there’s been a rise in many of the crimes where case closure rates significantly dropped, police data shows.

Reported assaults have gone up by more than 35 per cent since 2015, and theft over $5,000 increased by over 65 per cent. Fraud reports to police across the province have also skyrocketed.

For traffic fatalities though, case closure rates have gone down despite the number of deaths decreasing since 2015.

Clearance rates are an important indicator in gauging the likelihood of suspects getting caught, said Irvin Waller, a criminologist with the University of Ottawa.

But he stresses that while there is likely a case for giving the police more resources, there’s also a need to invest in prevention programs to help vulnerable young people likely to commit such crimes.

“This, in turn, would reduce the need for additional police resources,” he said.

Cases remaining open can mean victims are not getting the answers they’re longing for, said Jasminder Sekhon, the director of community engagement with Victim Services Toronto.

“It can result in a distrust in legal institutions. It can result in secondary victimization and re-traumatization from the situation,” she said.