After two consecutive months of losses, trucking jobs stabilized in June. However, further losses are projected as high capacity continues to put downward pressure on rates.
According to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, only 100 trucking jobs were eliminated from the economy in June. This marks the third consecutive monthly loss, which was preceded by a five-month growth streak.
David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, told Land Line that the employment report’s numbers are to be expected considering spot rates have hit the floor for most of the year. However, trucking jobs remaining flat in June is likely the result of the expected increase in spot rates throughout the summer peak season.
“Low spot rates have continued to result in downward pressure on contract rates, leading carriers to reduce driver headcounts,” Spencer said. “Total employment is down more than 31,000 jobs from May 2023, as pressure on asset carriers continues to mount. We are encouraged by the relative year-over-year growth in volatility this summer peak season but still feel the indicators point to a full rate recovery in 2025, at the earliest. As such, we think stability in employment levels is a best-case scenario in the short term.”
Revised numbers reveal slightly more trucking job losses in the previous two months, with a decrease of 6,100 jobs in May (compared to the initially reported loss of 5,400) and a decrease of 1,600 jobs in April (compared to the initially reported decrease of 900).
Accounting for all transportation sector jobs, employment rose by more than 7,000 jobs.
The transportation sector’s net increase was mostly the result of relatively large increases in three subsectors: support activities for transportation (up 2,700), transit/ground passenger transportation (up 2,600) and air transport (up 2,200). Only three subsectors experienced a job loss: warehousing/storage (minus 2,300), scenic/sightseeing transportation (minus 100) and trucking. Jobs in the remaining sector were mostly stable.
Updated data reveal slightly higher job numbers for the transport sector as a whole. Employment increased by 12,200 in May, up from the previously reported gain of 10,600 jobs. April’s revised numbers show an increase of 20,800 jobs, a bump from the initially reported gain of 19,500.
Transportation jobs are up by 73,000 for the year, exceeding the 69,000 jobs that were lost last year for the first time.
Month to month, wages increased in June and are up year-to-year. Average weekly earnings of all employees in the transportation and warehousing sector went up by more than $6 to $1,163.15. Compared to June 2023, hourly earnings increased to $30.69 from $29.34. Accounting for only production and nonsupervisory employees, average weekly earnings increased from $1,087.88 in May to $1,088.79. Hourly earnings increased by $1.30 from June 2023 to $29.19.
Across all industries, employment increased by 206,000 jobs, slightly better than projected. However, revised data shows that there were 111,000 fewer jobs created in April and May than initially reported, indicating much slower growth.
The unemployment rate rose another 0.1 percentage point to 4.1% for the third consecutive month. The last time the unemployment rate was that high was in November 2021. Compared to the previous year, the unemployment rate for transportation and material-moving occupations increased sharply from 5.9% to 6.7%. LL
