EUGENE, Ore. — His team’s rousing victory over No. 2 Ohio State just a few minutes old, Oregon coach Dan Lanning pushed aside that heart-pounding affair to state an obvious fact in the first few seconds of his postgame news conference: In the world of an expanded College Football Playoff, this game — though incredibly meaningful and important — was not the end all, be all.
In fact, he discussed that with his team even before the game.
“Regardless of result, everything is still on the table for both teams,” Lanning said after the Ducks’ 32-31 thriller in Autzen Stadium on Saturday night.
He’s right, of course. This year’s playoff will have an additional eight teams. The 12-team format, for those who have forgotten, features five automatic qualifiers for the five highest-ranked conference champions (the top four get a bye) and seven at-large spots for the next highest-ranked teams.
Halfway through the season, 11 undefeated teams remain, all or most in great position to obtain one of those 12 spots, including G5 teams like Army, Navy, Liberty and even one-loss Boise State.
But our focus isn’t on those programs.
There are plenty of one-loss, two-loss and even three-loss power conference teams that remain very much alive for a playoff bid — schools that, in a four-team playoff, would be left for dead. We picked the most legitimate 20 schools that, despite losses, are still in contention for a playoff berth.
As you’re browsing our list, keep this in mind: Over the previous 10 seasons, a whopping 78 teams — nearly eight per season — finished ranked inside the top 11 with at least one loss. Many of those teams had two losses (35) and seven teams had three losses.
Does your team have a loss? Perhaps two or even three?
They aren’t out of it.
“Is it OK to lose? Is that what you’re asking?” a smiling Lanning replied to a question posed to him about the expanded playoff.
Yes, coach. It is OK to lose (to the right teams, not by much and not very often!).
– Losses (1): vs. Georgia, 34-3, in Atlanta
– What’s left: Not too much! One ranked team (at Pitt) is left on the schedule. The Tigers should be favored in every game, perhaps by at least 10 points, before the ACC championship game.
– Why there’s hope: Well, outside of the aforementioned breeze of a schedule, Dabo Swinney’s group has been shredding through teams since the Georgia loss, outscoring their last five opponents by an average of more than 30 points a game.
– Losses (1): at Oregon, 32-31
– What’s left: The Buckeyes, actually, may play one of the toughest remaining stretches of any Big Ten team. They travel to Penn State, get a one-loss Nebraska team with a feisty defense, host unbeaten Indiana and travel to Michigan for the annual rivalry duel. Not the most difficult, but certainly not the least!
– Why there’s hope: Have you seen the talent on this crew? They went blow to blow in a tough rough environment in Autzen Stadium, showing off their allotment of 5-star transfers and former high school standouts. However, the game came at a cost. They likely lost starting tackle Josh Simmons for the season.
– Losses: vs. Northern Illinois
– What’s left: Suddenly, the Irish’s final six games look a bit more difficult than first thought. Navy and Army are unbeaten (the Irish get them both), and this week’s game at Georgia Tech isn’t a cakewalk either.
– Why there’s hope: Defense wins championships. You know that old saying! Coach Marcus Freeman’s crew knows how to slow an opponent’s offensive strength. They are 11th nationally in total defense and eighth in scoring. They’ve allowed more than 14 points just once in six games. However, if too many teams are bunched at 11-2 (title game losers) or 11-1, could the Irish be left out? They do, after all, have the worst loss of anyone on this list.
– Losses: at Alabama, 41-34
– What’s left: One of the more difficult schedules of any of the remaining one-loss teams. The Bulldogs get three top-25 teams — two of those in the top 11. The haul begins this week in Austin against the unbeaten Longhorns.
– Why there’s hope: Aside from talent, this schedule, while tough, provides opportunity. In fact, the Bulldogs might be able to absorb a second loss — if it’s the right one (at Texas, for instance) — and still remain in contention. A 10-2 Georgia with losses on the road to Alabama and Texas is likely finding a way into the playoff, especially if Clemson is a playoff team.
– Losses (1): vs. Notre Dame, 23-13
– What’s left: Games against LSU and Texas are the real bugaboos, but at least both come at Kyle Field. There’s a chance that coach Mike Elko’s squad could lose one of those two and still get into the field if they take care of business against the remaining teams (Mississippi State, Auburn and South Carolina).
– Why there’s hope: The hope really rests with Notre Dame. If the Aggies’ only two losses are to two playoff teams (LSU or Texas and Notre Dame), it may be tough for the committee to keep them out. Can the Irish keep winning? It would certainly help A&M. And, oh by the way, the Aggies have won five straight, can run the rock (232 yards rushing a game) and play great defense (17th in scoring).
– Losses (1): at Washington State, 37-16
– What’s left: Four of Tech’s final six opponents have a .500 or worse record and just one ranked team lies ahead (at Iowa State).
– Why there’s hope: Tech is one of three one-loss Big 12 teams on this list. The league is a smorgasbord of parity. The one thing that separates the Red Raiders: their loss is out of conference. They remain undefeated in the league and with a path to the title game for an automatic bid. That Nov. 2 duel in Ames is a big one.
– Losses (1): vs. USC, 27-20, in Las Vegas
– What’s left: Two top-15 opponents in the next three weeks. These next few days will make or break the Tigers with a trip to Arkansas followed by a game at Texas A&M and at home against Alabama. The loss to USC is looking worse and worse, so a second loss — even to a ranked team — may not bode well for Brian Kelly’s group.
– Why there’s hope: QB Garrett Nussmeier is averaging more than 300 yards per game, and the Tigers have proven to be an incredibly resilient group. They needed a massive second-half comeback to beat South Carolina, and they never led in the win over Ole Miss until Nussmeier’s game-winning touchdown pass in overtime.
– Losses (1): vs. BYU, 18-15
– What’s left: For the Mustangs, there are land mines everywhere, even in the ACC. That includes a game against undefeated Pitt on Nov. 2, tricky matchups with Boston College and Cal and a road trip to upstart 4-2 Virginia.
– Why there’s hope: Surprised to see Rhett Lashlee’s group listed here? Don’t be. Their only loss is a three-pointer at home to a top-15 team. The starting quarterback change to Kevin Jennings has provided a spark. SMU, unbeaten in the ACC, controls its destiny to the title game.
– Losses (1): at BYU, 38-9
– What’s left: A trip to Morgantown this weekend (never easy) and a game against 5-1 Arizona State, plus a season-ending trip to Ames to play unbeaten Iowa State.
– Why there’s hope: Run the regular season table — easier said than done — and the Wildcats are in the title game against, likely, BYU for a redemption game of the 29-point Provo blowout. However, Chris Klieman’s bunch needs Tech — who they don’t play — to drop a game. Tech avoids BYU too, by the way.
– Losses (1): at Vanderbilt, 40-35
– What’s left: Murderers’ row? Starting this week, the Tide play four consecutive ranked teams: Tennessee, Missouri, LSU and… Mercer! Mercer is ranked No. 11 in the FCS poll! Good luck, Tide!
– Why there’s hope: Ask Alabama fans and they may tell you that there is little to no hope after the last couple of performances. Bama is sporadic, that’s for sure, but the playmakers are there to make a run. The loss at Vanderbilt doesn’t look so bad now (the Dores are 5-2), and the win against Georgia is one of the best victories in the country so far. An 11-1 Alabama isn’t getting left out. The question is, would a 10-2 Bama be left out over SEC teams with similar records like A&M, Missouri or even a team it beat, Georgia?
– Losses (1): at Texas A&M, 41-10
– What’s left: The game against the Tide in Tuscaloosa on Oct. 26 feels like a playoff elimination game. The loser is likely out and the winner still has a shot.
– Why there’s hope: Missouri QB Brady Cook is one of the best in the country, but the hope really dwindled after a 31-point loss in College Station. Could a Missouri team that lost in such a way really advance to the playoff? Well, if A&M is a playoff team, there’s a better shot at it.
– Losses (1): at Arkansas, 19-14
– What’s left: Speaking of elimination games, this week’s tussle with Alabama in Knoxville feels like another one. Alabama and Tennessee went from world beaters in the first month to question marks in the last couple weeks. The Vols also have a road game at Georgia in there too, but they avoid A&M, Texas and LSU.
– Why there’s hope: Josh Heupel’s team did not suddenly become untalented. They have plenty of weapons. However, they just aren’t firing the last couple weeks like they were before, likely an outcome of playing better competition. Still, they control their destiny in many respects. The games against Bama and Georgia give them an opportunity to advance to the title game, all but assuring an at-large spot, at worst.
– Losses (1): at Penn State, 21-7
– What’s left: The Illini must travel to Eugene, host Michigan and end the year with solid teams in Rutgers and Northwestern. It’s no easy stretch.
– Why there’s hope: Though off of an uncharacteristic performance against Purdue (Illini survived in overtime), Bret Bielema’s team showed that it could win through the air. QB Luke Altmeyer hit nearly 400 yards against the Boilermakers, perhaps a sign of what’s to come? Remember, Illinois has one of the *best* losses of anyone on this list.
– Losses (1): at Texas Tech, 30-22
– What’s left: The Sun Devils get two of the best teams in the league in mid-November with games at Kansas State and at home to BYU. But the next two weeks — consecutive road trips to Cincinnati and Oklahoma State — could be tricky. Look out!
– Why there’s hope: RB Cam Skattebo would give hope to any team he played for. He’s an old-school, tackle-breaking tailback who is averaging nearly 6 yards a carry and has scored eight touchdowns in six games. He can catch too (250 yards receiving).
– Losses (1): vs. Illinois
– What’s left: Over the next two weeks, the Huskers are on the road at unbeaten Indiana and top-10 Ohio State. That’ll get the juices flowing! Beyond that, there’s a season-ending trip to Iowa, a game at the Coliseum and a meeting with pesky Wisconsin.
– Why there’s hope: Look, the schedule isn’t kind. But anything is possible with the way the Huskers are playing defense. The Blackshirts are back and with authority (seventh in scoring defense).
– Losses (2): vs. Iowa State, 20-19; at Ohio State, 35-7
– What’s left: No ranked teams. The Hawkeyes avoid Penn State and Oregon this year.
– Why there’s hope: Iowa showed off as much offensive firepower in games this year as they have in the last few seasons combined. They’ve scored at least 38 points three times this season. They had four 38-plus point games in the previous four years combined! All of that said, a running of the table and some help is needed. But so far, Iowa’s two losses are to likely playoff teams.
– Losses (2): vs. Kentucky, 20-17; at LSU 29-26 OT
– What’s left: A much-needed bye week comes this Saturday before a season-ending slate that features just one ranked team, but it’s a doozy: Georgia at home on Nov. 9. Trips to Arkansas and Florida are never easy either.
– Why there’s hope: The Rebels are as talented as they’ve been in the last decade, and they’ve got one of the country’s best offensive strategists as head coach. That should be enough hope as they march forward. But Kentucky’s loss to Vanderbilt really puts a damper on that home defeat to the Wildcats. It’s a tough one to overcome. The Rebels need help from others.
– Losses (2): at USC, 38-21; vs. Alabama, 42-10
– What’s left: Unfortunately for the Badgers, they still play the top two teams in the Big Ten right now. They get Penn State in two weeks and Oregon in a month (both at home).
– Why there’s hope: If you watched Luke Fickell’s teams in two blowout losses, you’d think there isn’t much hope at all. However, QB Braedyn Locke is finding a groove after replacing injured QB Tyler Van Dyke a few weeks ago. The Badgers’ pounding of Rutgers this past weekend proves that they can beat good teams. But can they beat great ones?
– Losses (2): at Nebraska, 28-10; vs. Kansas State, 31-28
– What’s left: The hard part of the schedule is over, but Texas Tech on Nov. 9 still looms. That game is in Lubbock and may be a playoff eliminator.
– Why there’s hope: Because the Buffs have Shedeur Sanders at quarterback and Travis Hunter at wide receiver and Travis Hunter at cornerback. Hunter’s health status remains in limbo, and he could be the difference between having hope and not having hope.
– Losses (1): at Boise State, 45-24
– What’s left: A Group of Five slate mostly, with a game against fellow Pac-12 holdover Oregon State. The Cougars should be favored in all of them.
– Why there’s hope: An 11-1 Washington State team, with its only loss to Heisman favorite Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos, could pose an interesting dilemma, especially since the Cougs beat current Big 12 leader Texas Tech and middling Big Ten team Washington. Hmmm. Washington State is treated as an independent this year and next, so they’d have to earn an at-large berth to get into the field.
